“A precious few countries have managed a high degree of development while simultaneously avoiding a collapse in birth rates. It is . .. a painfully short list: the United States, France, Argentina, Sweden, and New Zealand. And … that’s it. Even if politics aligned, even if everyone’s hearts were in the right place, even if all the Americans and French and Argentines and Swedes and Kiwis wanted to put the rest of the world’s needs in front of their own, the sheer scale of humanity’s demographic turning means all of them combined would not comprise nearly enough of a foundation to support a new global system.
By most measures- most notably in education, wealth, and health-globalization has been great, but it was never going to last. What you and your parents (and in some cases, grandparents) assumed as the normal, good, and right way of living that is, the past seven decades or so- is a historic anomaly for the human condition both in strategic and demographic terms. The period of 1980-2015 in particular has simply been a unique, isolated, blessed moment in time. A moment that has ended. A moment that will certainly not come again in our lifetimes.”
只有一些國家能在高度經濟發展的同時，維持生育率於不墜。只有少少的幾個國家：美國、法國、阿根廷、瑞典和紐西蘭。縱使大家的政治制度弄得一致，縱使大家的想法相同，縱使美國人、法國人、阿根廷人、瑞典人和紐西蘭人願意優先考慮其他國家的需求，全球人口結構改變影響規模之大，也不是這幾個國家可以力挽狂瀾的。
在各方面指標的衡量來看，尤其是在教育、財富、健康這些方面，全球化的影響都是很好的，但是在長期而言，將無法繼續維持。你和你的父母(有些情形甚至是你的祖父母)認為是正常的、好的、正確的生活方式，而其實在過去70年，從人類歷史的策略面和人口結構而言，都是一種特例。1980到2015年的期間，是特別獨特的、孤立的、備受祝福的時光，但是已然是結束了的時代。那個時代的榮光，在我們有生之年，是再也不會來臨。
“…China’s population path turned terminal two decades ago. Based on whose statistics you’re using, the average Chinese citizen aged past the average American citizen sometime between 2017 and 2020. China’s labor force and overall population peaked in the 2010s. In the best-case scenario, the Chinese population in the year 2070 will be less than half of what it was in 2020. More recent data that’s leaked out of the Chinese census authority suggests that date may need to be pulled forward to 2050. China’s collapse has already begun.”
……中國的人口成長趨勢在20年前就已經走到了盡頭。依據資料，中國人民的平均年齡在2017到2020年間超過了美國的。中國的勞動人口和總人數在2010年左右達到最高峰。依照最樂觀狀況估計，中國總人數在2070年會比2020年總人數的一半還要少。最近中國統計局披露的資料顯示，那個總人數減半的時程，可能提早至2050年。中國(人口的結構)已經開始崩解。
“The first category of food-exporting countries are those whose supply systems for everything from finance to fertilizers to fuels are sufficiently in-house that they can continue producing their current product set with only minor adjustments. France, the United States, and Canada are the only countries on the planet that check all the boxes. Russia is a near miss. Russian farm vehicles are, well, Russian. Saddled with an aging and collapsing population, Russia simply doesn’t have the labor to maintain ag output with anything less than the sort of mammoth field equipment that Russia is incapable of manufacturing for itself.”
全世界的糧食出口國中，從資金、肥料到燃料等等皆可以自給自足，而且面對外在的變動稍微調整就可以繼續生產的，只有三個國家：法國、美國和加拿大。俄羅斯距離自給自足還差一點點，因為人口老化，俄羅斯沒有足夠的人力和大型的機械來增加額外的糧食產量。
“Should something—should anything—happen to those imported food flows, civilizational collapse into anarchy complete with a population “correction” isn’t simply a distinct possibility, it is the most likely outcome. After all, a government that cannot feed its population is a government that falls.
That’s the story of the biggest losers in relative terms. In absolute terms the biggest loser by far will be China. China sits at the end of the world’s longest supply routes for nearly everything it imports, including roughly 80 percent of its oil needs. China’s navy lacks the range necessary to secure, via trade or conquest, agricultural products- or even the inputs to grow and raise its own.
China’s demographic collapse suggests imminent labor force and capital-supplies collapses. And China’s existing, Order-era agricultural system is already the most hyper-financed sector in history’s most hyper-financed economy. There is nothing about this that will work in the world to come. There will be no shortage of famines in the post-Order world. Likely in excess of 1 billion people will starve to death, and another 2 billion will suffer chronic malnutrition. Some two-thirds of China’s population faces one of those two fates. And remember, China is also history’s most quickly aging society. The people who will be called upon to manage—or suffer through—mass malnutrition and famine are going to be old.”
進口糧食的物流出現任何問題，社會將陷入無法修正挽回的無政府狀態，這是最可能發生的狀況。畢竟，無法餵飽人民的政府，是失敗的政府。
那是指相對而言受損最大的國家。以絕對值來說，受損最大的國家，截至目前為止，會是中國。中國的地理位置，在幾乎它所有進口物品運輸路線的最遠端，包含它80%仰賴進口的石油。不管是透過自由貿易或武力征服，中國海軍的巡航範圍也不夠大到在整條航線保護到農產品。(中國本身)也沒有足夠的生產要素，來種植夠自給自足的農產品。
中國人口結構的老化崩解，代表勞動力和資金的匱乏。而當下中國指導性農業系統，已經是史上動用最多資金的部門了。這在未來的新世界，將無以為繼。在後全球化的世界中，將饑荒處處。全世界大約有10億人會餓死，有20億人會陷入長期的營養不良。大約三分之二的中國人口，將落入前面那兩種命運之中。記得，中國是史上老化最快的社會。被迫要面對或忍受營養不良和饑荒的，正是那些年紀較長的人。
“…in a post-globalized world. Production of the crops used for fodder- most notably corn–will dip. Transport that brings corn and soy to the feedlots and meat to the world will falter. Global income will crater, returning animal protein to the realm of luxury for the bulk of the human population. The key word there is “bulk.” The New World writ large will still enjoy massive grain and soy surpluses, enabling it to continue following the industrial agricultural model as regards animal husbandry….”
……在後全球化(post-globalized)的世界。當作飼料的農作物，尤其是玉米，產量會遽減。運送玉米、黃豆到飼養場以及將肉品運銷至全世界的運輸系統，將搖搖欲墜。全球低迷的國民所得，將使得吃肉對大多數的人是一種奢侈。關𨫡字是「大多數的」。在「新世界」，還是有很多穀物和豆類供畜牧場繼續使用工業的方式生產……
“…one question popped up time and again: What keeps you up at night?…
Anywho, at its core, this chapter is my answer to the question.
The same webwork of sacrosanct interconnections that has brought us everything from quick mortgages to smartphones to on-demand electricity has not only also filled 8 billion bellies, it has done so with the odd out-of-season avocado. That’s now largely behind us. The web is failing. Just past the horizon looms a world of lower and less reliable agricultural yields, marred by less variety. A world with less energy or fewer manufactured goods is the difference between wealth and security or poverty and conflict. But a world with fewer foodstuffs is one with fewer people.
More than war, more than disease, famine is the ultimate country killer.“*
……心中不斷出現的問題是：是什麼令人在晚上(煩惱得)睡不著覺的。
對任何問這個問題的人，針對問題的核心，在這個章節我提供了答案。
強大互聯的網絡系統，不只帶給我們快速抵押貸款、智慧型手機及隨時充電的方便，它也讓我們可以餵飽80億人的胃，其中甚至包括在非產季有酪梨可吃。但是現在狀況已經大不相同了，這個網絡系統正在崩解。農作物不再便宜，生產量也不再穩定，種類也更少。在未來的世界中，在充滿衝突地區的窮人，相較於生活安全而富有的人，能獲得的能源供應將更緊俏、工業產品的供應將更少。未來的世界，食物將更缺乏，能養活的人數也將更少。
比起戰爭或疾病，最終摧毀國家的殺手，會是饑荒。
*：Peter Zeihan, “The end of the world is just the beginning,” 2022, HarperCollins
2023/11/16 The end of the world is just the beginning Damakey
