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How to prevent the next pandemic

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“……We have to do climate. Now were doing pandemics and health. What else is there?

The answer is that these are the two major problems I think we need to put more resources into. Climate change and pandemics-including the possibility of an attack by bioterrorists are the most likely existential threats for humans. Fortunately, there are opportunities to make major progress on both of them in the next decade.

For climate change, if we spend the next ten years developing green technologies, setting up the right financial incentives, and getting the right public policies in place, we can be on a path to net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. The news is even better for pandemics: Over the next decade, if governments expand their investments in research and adopt evidence-based policies, we can develop most of the tools we need to keep an outbreak from turning into a disaster. The amount of money required for pandemic preparedness is far less than what it will take to avoid a climate disaster.

This cause may seem remote. It can be hard to feel that you have any ability to affect the course of a pandemic. A mysterious new disease is frightening, and it can also be frustrating, because it seems that we have so little power to do anything about it.

But there are things that each of us can do. Elect leaders who will take pandemics seriously and make good, science-based decisions when the time comes. Follow their advice about masking up, staying home, and keeping your distance when you’re out. Get vaccinated when you can. And avoid the misinformation and disinformation that flood social media: Get your information regarding public health practices from reliable sources, such as the WHO, the CDC in the United States, and its equivalent in other countries.

Most of all, don’t let the world forget how awful COVID was. Do whatever you can to keep pandemics on the agenda- locally, nationally, internationally- so we can break the cycle of panic and neglect that makes them the most important thing in the world for a time, until we forget about them and go back to our daily lives.

We’re all eager to return to the way things were before, but there is one thing we

cannot afford to go back to – our complacency about pandemics.”*

…我們必須面對氣候變遷的問題。 現在則必須面對流行病對我們健康的威脅,那麼還有什麼其他的重要的事項也需要我們的注意呢呢?

答案是,這是我認為我們需要投入更多資源的兩個主要問題。 氣候變遷和流行病——包括生物恐怖分子襲擊的可能性,是人類生存的威脅。 幸運的是,在未來十年內,它們都有機會取得重大進展。

對於氣候變遷,如果我們在未來十年內致力於開發綠能技術,制定正確的財政激勵措施和公共政策,我們將走上到2050年實現溫室氣體淨零排放的正確道路。 而至於對於流行病來說,狀況將更為樂觀:在未來十年裡,如果政府擴大研究投資並基於客觀事實做決策,我們可以開發防止疫情演變成災難所需的大多數工具。 預應疫情所需的資金,將遠遠低於避免氣候災難所需要的投入。

這個目標可能看起來很遙遠。 很難感覺到你有任何能力去影響疫情的發展過程。 一種神秘的潛在新疾病令人恐懼,也可能令人沮喪,因為我們似乎幾乎沒有能力對它做什麼事情。

但有些事情我們每個人都可以做。 選舉出對的人來主事,認真對待流行病並適時基於科學數據做出良好的決策。大家依照規定戴好口罩、或留在家裡,並在外出時保持社交距離等等的建議。 在可以的時候接種疫苗。 避免誤信泛濫在社交媒體中各種錯誤和虛假的資訊:從可靠的來源獲取有關公共衛生的資訊,如世衛組織、美國疾控中心以及其他國家的同等機構。

盡你所能將流行病列入議程——在地方上、國家的層級和國際之間——這樣我們就可以打破恐慌和忽視所形成的惡性循環,這種循環使流行病暫時成為世界上最重要的事情,直到我們忘記它,終於返回到日常的生活為止。

我們都渴望回到以前的樣子,但有一件事我們不能回去,那就是我們對流行病曾經的自滿。

…….

前面這段文字,是Bill Gates在“How to prevent the next pandemic” 這本書,在結論中苦口婆心提醒大家,氣候變遷和流行病預防,是人類當前的兩大問題。

值得大家深思。

蘇俄於2022年入侵烏克蘭,至今已經超過一年;巴勒斯坦人在哈瑪斯和以色列之間,又再進一步被逼到生死存亡的危難之中;台灣在大國之間的博弈之中,前途也變得充滿不確定性;而在世界的諸多偏遠的角落,有更多不公不義的貪污腐敗屠殺則正在用力地上演。

所謂的歷史,是已經發生的人事物,但是並不是每位個人或每個團體都能記取教訓,致力於讓悲慘的歷史不再重演。

凡病毒沒有殺死的,固然可以變得更強大,但是並無法防止他們在地球上同室操戈,互相殘害。

人類只不過是在「人類世」做個短暫的過場,大家在演化上都是同根所生,相煎又何必太急呢?

Tesla 的老闆Musk說,人類應該胸懷大志,做跨越星際的旅客和移民。

只是一個美麗的、從外太空看起來水水的地球,呼吸幾乎不必費吹灰之力的隨意好地方,我們都無法好好保護,又怎麼能保證到另外一個更困難的星球,重力、陽光、空氣、水、礦物、生態俱皆不利或缺乏的鳥地方,我們可以過得更幸福快樂呢?

Bill Gates 親力親為,捐很多錢致力於改善地球上赤貧者的生活,以及他們面前疾病的威脅。他認為只要基於客觀的事實做良善的決策,這個世界會變得更好。

怎麼覺得,一位家財萬貫的企業家,比在區域政治中互相挑釁、短視近利的政客們,多了許多的慈悲。

為富不仁,好像不是一個顛撲不破的大道理。

*:Bill Gates, “How to prevent the next pandemic,” Alfred A. Knopf New York Toronto 2022

2023/10/27 How to prevent the next pandemic Damakey

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