“…In a major strategic miscalculation, Washington admitted Beijing to the World Trade Organization(WTO) in 2001, bizarrely confident that compliant China would somehow join the global economy without changing the balance of power. ‘Across the ideological spectrum, we in the US foreign policy community,’ two former members of the Obama administration later wrote, ‘shared the underlying belief that US power and hegemony could readily mold China to the United States’ liking….All sides of the policy debate erred.’ A bit more bluntly, formal national security advisor H.R. McMaster concluded that Washington had empowered ‘a nation whose leaders were determined not only to displace the United States in Asia, but also to promote a rival economic and governance model globally.’ Over the span of fifteen years, Beijing’s exports to the US grew nearly fivefold to $462 billion, and its foreign currency reserves surged from just $200 billion to an unprecedented $4 trillion by 2014…”
美國官員事後評估，認為讓中國在2001年加入WTO，是美國在策略上所犯的的一大失誤。中國在短短15年之內，外匯存底從2000億美金膨脹到了4兆美金。
(中國因此可以大肆擴張軍備，在世界各地取得港口並開始建一些海軍基地，並實施「一帶一路」的各項投資，在歐亞大陸之間建天然氣管線、鐵路，儼然成為新堀起的區域性強權，意圖與美國在世界秩序中一較長短)
“…In late 2019, the New York Times reported that ‘in 18 of the last 18 Pentagon war game involving China in the Taiwan Strait, the US lost,’ Rather than ramp up its defense of those straits, where more US aircraft carriers would simply mean bigger targets, in 2020 Washington encouraged Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., maker of 85 percent the world’s most advanced computer chips, to build a $12 billion factory in Arizona. Those outcomes may explain how Beijing’s growing strength in the South China Sea could become the first step in Washington’s retreat from the Pacific littoral. As China pushes its maritime frontier farther into Pacific, engulfing and threatening Taiwan, Washington may well be faced a difficult choice—to either abandon an old ally, or fight a war it might lose.”
美國國防部在18種假定，和中國對戰的台海戰役兵棋推演之中，結果美國都是輸家。美國為了降低國家安全的風險，因此要求代工高階晶片的台積電到美國，花120億美金設立新的工廠。
“Even if China were to become the preeminent world power around 2030, the accelerating of climate change will likely curtailed its hegemony within two to three decades…by 2050, rising seas will inundate several major Chinese coastal cities, particularly the county’s commercial hub at Shanghai. As these problems gain intensity after mid century, Beijing will likely be forced to retreat from its projection of global power to address urgent domestic concerns.”
縱使中國在2030年能躋身為世界的強權，但是隨著全球暖化以致氣候變化加劇的到來，中國將會被迫把資源及注意力放回到國內，解決沿海城市被海水淹沒而必須大量遷居的問題。
“…increasing temperatures will devastate the North China Plain, a prime agricultural region between Beijing and Shanghai currently inhabited by four hundred million people, potentially making it the most lethal place on the planet…when the combination of heat and humidity reaches a ‘wet bulb temperature’(WBT) of 31 °C，and perhaps five lethal periods of 35°C WBT(where a combination of heat and high humidity prevents the evaporation of sweat that cools human body). After just six hours under the later condition, a healthy person at rest will die…”
全球暖化對中國氣候潮濕的華北地區居民威脅很大。一旦保持在「溼球溫度」(wet bulb temperature, WBT)35 °C以上(約當46°C+相對溼度50%以上)，人將無法排汗，縱使是很健康的人，在這種條件下6個小時，將會導致死亡。
“…The Black Death persisted for just four years…The Napoleonic Wars lasted 20 years and World War II six years. Instead of ending in 2050 or even 2100, climate change will…continue and likely escalate for at least two more centuries before stabilizing with the formation of a very new kind of climate…That changed climate will bring such cascading consequences as aridification, drought, fire, flood, rising seas, and weather extremes on a previous inconceivable scale—causing suffering for human societies worldwide and incalculable disruption to existing world order.”
不管是黑死病、拿破崙戰爭、第二次世界大戰(或最近的Covid-19), 都在短暫的幾年內，頂多20年，就結束了，但是全球暖化造成的氣候變遷的影響，不會那麼早就離我們而去。乾旱、燥熱、野火、洪水、海水淹沒等等天災(或人禍？)，在接下來的兩個世紀內，將可能以令人不可思議的規模，影響到人類生命和財產的安全。
以宏觀的角度來看，全球暖化造成的氣候變遷，將牽動「人類世」政治、經濟和軍事秩序的長期發展。
*：Alfred W. McCoy, To Govern the Globe, World Orders & Catastrophic Change, 2021, Haymarket Books
2023/7/30 To Govern the Globe, World Orders & Catastrophic Change Damakey
