這個永續發展的世界，需要的不是節能減碳，而是更充分進一步利用石化燃料。為什麼呢？
其中很主要的重點，是全球還有50億人在每天靠低於10美金的收入在生活。他們迫切需要繼續用低廉的石化燃料來促進生產力、改變他們的生活。
這是一個非常有意思的觀點。
在開發中國家，要那50億人節能減碳，那就好像「何不食肉糜」那個古老故事一樣。
什麼是真正的慈悲？對Alex Epstein 而言，多用石化燃料，是對地球上那50億貧窮的人，最大的慈悲。
節錄一些重點跟大家分享：
“In fact, if we look at the universally acknowledged history of climate and life on this planet, we inevitably come to the conclusion that rising CO₂ levels leading to an unlivable planet is literally impossible- because the planet was incredibly livable for far less-adaptable organisms, with much in common with us, when CO₂ was at levels that we could not come close to even if we wanted to.
There are four basic truths about the history of climate that lead me to this conclusion:
1. The global climate system is near historic lows in CO₂ and temperature.
2. We have no near-term mechanism of reaching even one fourth the historical high of CO₂
3. Life on Earth thrived at far higher CO₂ levels and temperatures in the past.
4. Planetary warming is concentrated in colder parts of the Earth- it is not truly global.”
從地球氣候變化的歷史看來，是無法得到「二氧化碳的濃度的升高會令地球無法住人」這樣的結論的。地球過去的二氧化碳的濃度，曾高到就算我們現在想要也達不到的地步，但當時地球可是生機勃勃，生存著很多類似我們但是比我們對環境適應力差上很多的物種。
上面這個結論，是基於以下四項氣候變遷的歴史真相：
1. 現在的二氧化碳濃度和氣溫的水準，幾乎是全球氣候系統在歴史上的低點。
2. 在近期，我們的二氧化碳濃度再高也高不過過去歷史上最高記錄的四分之一。
3. 過去，在更高的二氧化碳的濃度及氣溫之下，地球上的生物長得可是很蓬勃的。
4. 地球暖化的現象只出現在部分的地區，並不是一個全球化的普遍現象。
“Since 1980, the percentage of humanity living on less than $2 a day has gone from 42 percent to under 10 percent today.
This wondrous development is the result of increasing and expanding productivity, which is driven by the increasing and expanding use of fossil-fueled machine labor and the enormous amounts of mental labor it frees up.
But there is still far more progress to be had. Not only are there the 10 percent of people who still struggle (and die early) on less than $2 a day, but the overwhelming majority of humanity still lives at a level that most readers of this book would consider desperate poverty. For example, five billion people still live on less than $10 a day.
Expanding fossil fuel use will enable everyone, especially the world’s poorest people, to become more productive and prosperous.
At the same time, continuing advances in pollution-control technology will make it possible for poorer people to use fossil fuels to lift themselves out of poverty with less and less pollution.
All of this means more first light bulbs, more first refrigerators, more first rewarding jobs, more first years with a consistently full stomach, more first years drinking consistently clean water, more first years being comfortable no matter what the weather.”
從1980年至今，每天所得低於美金2元的貧窮人口，已經從百分之42降到百分之10。
這個重大的成就，來自生產力的改善，主要是石化燃料推動機器，節省的勞勉力讓人可以有更多空餘時間去思考創新。
但是，改善貧窮的問題，還有很大的努力空間。除了那些每日所得少於美金2元的百分之十人口，每天猶在生死存亡的邊緣掙扎，我們還有很多赤貧的人，都沒有辦法過上現在在讀這本書的諸多讀者所過的生活，譬如每日所得不及美金10元的人，在世界上的總數高達50億人。
繼續擴大石化燃料的使用，對大家都有好處，尤其對那些最貧窮的人，可以讓他們更有生產力，過得更富足。
而且，在防治污染科技的持續進步之下，我們可以利用石化燃料改善他們的生活的同時，兼顧到污染的減少。
這些代表的是，讓更多人擁有他們人生的第一組電燈泡、第一部冰箱、第一份好工作、第一次能夠長年填飽肚子、第一次能夠喝上乾淨的水、第一次可以在不同天候之下都感到安心舒適。
“Some of the challenges I am most concerned about are antibiotic-resistant bacteria, growing government deficits, and the rise of dictatorial nations.
One great feature of an empowered world is that it has a general and highly adaptive ability to deal with such challenges.
We saw this with COVID-19 when the empowered world was able to develop multiple vaccines in less than a years in fact, the Moderna vaccine was actually designed in a weekend using modern computing machines.
A world increasingly empowered by fossil fuels will have the ability to take on the challenges we can think of and the ones we can’t think of.”
我們最擔心的挑戰是抗藥性細菌的出現、政府的預算赤字的增高及獨裁國家的興起。
充分利用這個世界的資源，可以使得人類在面對這些挑戰時，更俱備調整適應的能力。
面對Covid-19的挑戰，充分利用這個世界的資源，讓我們在短短一年內研發出多種疫苗，其中的莫德納疫苗，還是利用一個週末運用最先進的電腦運算能力設計出來的呢！
一個充分利用石化燃料的世界，將使我們俱備所需的能力，接受現在已知的或未來未知的各種挑戰。
*：Alex Epstein, “Fossil Future, Why Global Human Flourishing Required More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas — Nit Less,” 2022, Penguin Random House LLC
2023/9/11 Fossil Future Damakey
