{"id":736,"date":"2022-07-22T07:35:17","date_gmt":"2022-07-21T23:35:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/?p=736"},"modified":"2023-05-24T16:39:52","modified_gmt":"2023-05-24T08:39:52","slug":"%e8%b7%9f%e5%87%b1%e5%9b%a0%e6%96%af%e5%ad%b8%e5%83%b9%e5%80%bc%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%88%90%e7%82%ba%e6%95%a3%e6%88%b6%e8%b4%8f%e5%ae%b6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/?p=736","title":{"rendered":"\u8ddf\u51f1\u56e0\u65af\u5b78\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u70ba\u6563\u6236\u8d0f\u5bb6"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u4e00\u4f4d\u53eb\u7f85\u7d0d·\u745e\u5fb7<\/span>(Ronald Reed)<\/span>\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u9115\u4e0b\u4eba\uff0c\u5728\u52a0\u6cb9\u7ad9\u70ba\u4eba\u4fee\u8eca<\/span>25<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u4e5f\u5728\u767e\u8ca8\u516c\u53f8\u6253\u6383\u4e86<\/span>17<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c<\/span>92<\/span>\u6b72\u53bb\u901d\u6642\uff0c\u64c1\u6709\u6de8\u8cc7\u7522\u8d85\u904e<\/span>800<\/span>\u842c\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4ed6\u600e\u9ebc\u8fa6\u5230\u7684\uff1f<\/span>*<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

1. <\/span>\u7701\u5403\u5109\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

2. <\/span>\u6295\u8cc7\u7e3e\u512a\u80a1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

3. <\/span>\u5c07\u80a1\u606f\u518d\u8cfc\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

4. <\/span>\u8010\u5fc3\u7b49\u5f85\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u9019\u7a2e\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u300c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u300d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u4e00\u5411\u662f\u300c\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u300d\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u64c1\u8b77\u8005\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u8ddf\u57fa\u91d1\u80a1\u6771\u89e3\u91cb\u4ed6\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u6642\uff0c\u4ed6\u5beb\u9053\uff0c\u4ed6\u559c\u6b61\u6295\u8cc7\u5177\u6709\u751f\u7522\u529b\u8cc7\u7522<\/span>(<\/span>\u8fb2\u7530\u3001\u4e0d\u52d5\u7522\u3001\u4f01\u696d\u6240\u6709\u6b0a\u7b49\u6703\u7522\u751f\u8ca1\u5bcc\u7684\u8cc7\u7522<\/span>)<\/span>\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u800c\u8981\u4eab\u6709\u751f\u7522\u529b\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u56db\u5927\u689d\u4ef6\u70ba\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

1. <\/span>\u6642\u9593\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

2. <\/span>\u5e73\u548c\u7684\u5167\u5fc3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

3. <\/span>\u5145\u8db3\u7684\u5206\u6563\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

4. <\/span>\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u51f1\u6069\u65af\u6bd4\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u66f4\u65e9\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u300c\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u300d\u7684\u64c1\u8b77\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u5247\u90fd\u662f\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

1. <\/span>\u805a\u7126\u8a08\u7b97\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u4ee5\u9810\u4f30\u76c8\u9918\u4f86\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u9760\u63a8\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u8d70\u52e2\u4f86\u7372\u5229\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

2. <\/span>\u78ba\u8a8d\u8cb7\u5165\u6642\u662f\u5426\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u908a\u969b\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u5fc5\u9808\u548c\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u6709\u660e\u986f\u7684\u6709\u5229\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

3. <\/span>\u81ea\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7368\u7acb\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4f60\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u80fd\u8207\u7fa4\u773e\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u9006\u52e2\u6295\u8cc7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

4. <\/span>\u964d\u4f4e\u6301\u80a1\u7684\u9031\u8f49\u7387\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u53d7\u5230\u5e02\u5834\u8d77\u843d\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u8981\u80fd\u5805\u5b9a\u4e0d\u79fb\u5730\u6301\u6709\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u56de\u6b78\u50f9\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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5. <\/span>\u96c6\u4e2d\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u5c07\u6a19\u7684\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u6210\u9577\u6027\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u5e7e\u500b\u6a19\u7684\u5167\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6a19\u7684\u5fc5\u9808\u5e73\u8861\u7522\u696d\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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6. <\/span>\u80fd\u5177\u5099\u8010\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u80fd\u5feb\u901f\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u8981\u80fd\u5728\u9019\u5169\u8005\u4e4b\u9593\u4fdd\u6301\u5e73\ud85d\uddfd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8b1b\u8d77\u4f86\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u505a\u5230\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u8cc7\u672c\u8ca1\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8cc7\u672c\u8ca1\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u662f\u7531\u672a\u4f86\u6bcf\u5e74\u9810\u671f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u6298\u70ba\u73fe\u503c\u7d2f\u52a0\u8d77\u4f86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5148\u7528\u4e00\u500b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u4f86\u8aaa\u660e\u6982\u5ff5\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u67d0\u9805\u8cc7\u672c\u8ca1\u672a\u80fd\u4e94\u5e74\u9810\u4f30\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u91cf\u53ca\u5176\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u6298\u73fe\u7387<\/span>(<\/span>\u4e0d\u540c\u7684<\/span>WACC)<\/span>\u8a66\u7b97<\/span>(<\/span>\u73fe\u503c<\/span>)<\/span>\u7684\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>**<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u672a\u4f86\u9810\u4f30<\/span> WACC(<\/span>\u6298\u73fe\u7387<\/span>)<\/span><\/p>\n

\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u91cf<\/span> 4.95%    <\/span>8%<\/span><\/p>\n

————— ———— ———-<\/span><\/p>\n

1,000          <\/span>953       <\/span>926<\/span><\/p>\n

1,100           <\/span>999       <\/span>943<\/span><\/p>\n

1,210          <\/span>1,047      <\/span>961<\/span><\/p>\n

1,331          <\/span>1,097      <\/span>978<\/span><\/p>\n

1,464         <\/span>1,150       <\/span>996<\/span><\/p>\n

————— ————  <\/span>———<\/span><\/p>\n

6,105         <\/span>5,245     <\/span>4,804<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u8003\u616e\u6298\u73fe\u503c\uff0c\u8a72\u8cc7\u672c\u8ca1\u672a\u4f86\u4e94\u5e74\u5171\u53ef\u7522\u751f<\/span>6,105<\/span>\u5143\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8ca8\u5e63\u6709\u6642\u9593\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u91cf\u6709\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5fc5\u9808\u7528\u4e00\u500b\u6298\u73fe\u7387\u7b97\u6210\u7576\u4e0b\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7528<\/span>4.95%  <\/span><\/span>\u6298\u73fe<\/span>(<\/span>\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\u6bcf\u5e74\u7d2f\u9664<\/span>1.0495)<\/span>\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u91cf\u73fe\u503c\u662f<\/span>5,245<\/span>\u5143\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u8a55\u4f30\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u91cf\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u7528\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6298\u73fe\u503c\u8b6c\u5982<\/span>8%(<\/span>\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\u6bcf\u5e74\u7d2f\u9664<\/span>1.08)<\/span>\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u91cf\u5247\u662f\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684<\/span>4,804<\/span>\u5143\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u8a72\u8cc7\u672c\u8ca1\u7684\u300c\u50f9\u503c\u300d\u8f03\u4f4e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f<\/span>WACC?<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

1. <\/span>\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u6210\u672c\u901a\u5e38\u7531\u50b5\u6b0a\u6210\u672c\u53ca\u80a1\u6b0a\u6210\u672c\u6240\u7d44\u6210\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u52a0\u6b0a\u5e73\u5747\u5f8c\u5c31\u662f<\/span>WACC<\/span>\u52a0\u6b0a\u5e73\u5747\u8cc7\u672c\u6210\u672c\uff08<\/span>Weighted Average Cost of Capital<\/span>\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

2. <\/span>\u52a0\u6b0a\u5e73\u5747\u8cc7\u672c\u6210\u672c<\/span>(WACC)<\/span>\u662f\u5728\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u6298\u73fe\u4f30\u50f9\u6a21\u578b\uff08<\/span>DCF<\/span>\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u8a08\u7b97\u6298\u73fe\u7387\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u7a2e\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u85c9\u6b64\u8a08\u7b97\u4e00\u500b\u516c\u53f8\u6216\u6a19\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u73fe\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

3. <\/span>\u901a\u5e38\u7372\u5229\u8d8a\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6703\u50be\u5411\u7528\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684<\/span>WACC<\/span>\u53bb\u4f30\u7b97\u516c\u53f8\u672a\u4f86\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u91cf\u7684\u73fe\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u90fd\u662f\u5047\u8a2d\u4e00\u76f4\u958b\u8a2d\u4e0b\u53bb\u7684<\/span>(<\/span>\u7576\u7136\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u771f\u7684<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u67d0\u516c\u53f8\u6bcf\u7b2c<\/span>1<\/span>\u5e74\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41<\/span>(<\/span>\u80a1\u5229<\/span>)<\/span>\u70ba<\/span>D, <\/span>\u4ee5\u5f8c\u6bcf\u5e74\u6210\u9577<\/span>g%<\/span>\uff0c\u6298\u73fe\u7387\u70ba<\/span>r%<\/span>\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6298\u73fe\u503c\u5c31\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5e74\u5ea6<\/span>  <\/span><\/span>\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41<\/span>(<\/span>\u80a1\u5229<\/span>)         <\/span><\/span>\u6298\u73fe\u503c<\/span><\/p>\n

——- ———————— ————————————-<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span>1       <\/span>D                       <\/span>D\/(1+r)<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span>2      <\/span>D*(1+g)            <\/span>D*(1+g)\/(1+r)^2<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span>3      <\/span>D*(1+g)^2       <\/span>D*(1+g)^2\/(1+r)^2<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span>……<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span>n       <\/span>D(1+g)^(n-1)  <\/span>D*(1+g)^(n-1)\/(1+r)^(n-1)<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u7d93\u71df<\/span>n<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u628a\u6bcf\u5e74\u9810\u4f30\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41<\/span>(<\/span>\u80a1\u5229<\/span>)<\/span>\u7684\u6298\u73fe\u503c\u52a0\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u5c31\u7d04\u7576\u662f\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

P= D\/(1+r)+D*(1+g) \/(1+r)^2+ D*(1+g)^2\/(1+r)^3 +…+D*(1+g)^(n-1)\/(1+r)^(n-1)<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

P*(1+r)\/(1+g)=D\/(1+g)+ D*\/(1+r)+ D*(1+g)\/(1+r)^2 +…+D*(1+g)^(n-2)\/(1+r)^(n-2)<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

P*(1+r-1-g)\/(1+g)= D\/(1+g)-D*(1+g)^(n-1)\/(1+r)^(n-1) <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7576<\/span>g<r , n—><\/span>\u7121\u9650\u5927\uff0c<\/span>D*(1+g)^(n-1)\/(1+r)^(n-1) —>0<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

P*(r-g)=D<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

P=D\/(r-g)<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9019\u5c31\u9ad8\u767b\u7684\u80a1\u5229\u6210\u9577\u6a21\u578b\uff0c<\/span>P<\/span>\u662f\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\uff0c<\/span>D<\/span>\u662f\u9996\u5e74\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41<\/span>(<\/span>\u80a1\u5229<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c<\/span>g<\/span>\u662f\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41<\/span>(<\/span>\u80a1\u5229<\/span>)<\/span>\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u6210\u9577\u7387\uff0c<\/span>r<\/span>\u662f\u6298\u73fe\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5c31\u662f\u6bd4\u8f03<\/span>P<\/span>\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6210\u4ea4\u50f9\uff0c\u82e5<\/span>P<\/span>\u9ad8\u904e\u5e02\u5834\u6210\u4ea4\u50f9\u6709\u660e\u986f\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u8a72\u8cc7\u7522<\/span>(<\/span>\u80a1\u7968<\/span>)<\/span>\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\uff0c\u662f\u8cb7\u9ede\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/span><\/p>\n

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*<\/span>\uff1a\u300a\u8ddf\u51f1\u56e0\u65af\u5b78\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u70ba\u6563\u6236\u8d0f\u5bb6\u300b\uff0c\u8cc8\u65af\u5ef7·\u83ef\u8a31<\/span> <\/span>\u8457\uff0c\u5468\u6c9b\u90c1<\/span> <\/span>\u9673\u660c\u5100<\/span> <\/span>\u8b6f<\/span><\/p>\n

**<\/span>\uff1a\u7bc4\u4f8b\u5f15\u81ea<\/span>Mr.Market<\/span>\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u7db2\u7ad9<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

2022\/7\/21 <\/span>\u8ddf\u51f1\u56e0\u65af\u5b78\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u70ba\u6563\u6236\u8d0f\u5bb6<\/span> Damakey<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u4e00\u4f4d\u53eb\u7f85\u7d0d·\u745e\u5fb7(Ronald Reed)\u7684\u7f8e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-3"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=736"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/736\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19744,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/736\/revisions\/19744"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}