{"id":36842,"date":"2023-11-16T10:28:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-16T02:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/?p=36842"},"modified":"2023-12-05T10:29:45","modified_gmt":"2023-12-05T02:29:45","slug":"the-end-of-the-world-is-just-the-beginning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/?p=36842","title":{"rendered":"The end of the world is just the beginning"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"683\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/damakey.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/721830373.988943-683x1024.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-36843\" srcset=\"https:\/\/damakey.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/721830373.988943-683x1024.jpeg 683w, https:\/\/damakey.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/721830373.988943-200x300.jpeg 200w, https:\/\/damakey.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/721830373.988943-768x1152.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/damakey.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/721830373.988943-585x878.jpeg 585w, https:\/\/damakey.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/721830373.988943.jpeg 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 683px) 100vw, 683px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cA precious few countries have managed a high degree of development while simultaneously avoiding a collapse in birth rates. It is . .. a painfully short list: the United States, France, Argentina, Sweden, and New Zealand. And &#8230; that&#8217;s it. Even if politics aligned, even if everyone&#8217;s hearts were in the right place, even if all the Americans and French and Argentines and Swedes and Kiwis wanted to put the rest of the world&#8217;s needs in front of their own, the sheer scale of humanity&#8217;s demographic turning means all of them combined would not comprise nearly enough of a foundation to support a new global system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By most measures- most notably in education, wealth, and health-globalization has been great, but it was never going to last. What you and your parents (and in some cases, grandparents) assumed as the normal, good, and right way of living that is, the past seven decades or so- is a historic anomaly for the human condition both in strategic and demographic terms. The period of 1980-2015 in particular has simply been a unique, isolated, blessed moment in time. A moment that has ended. A moment that will certainly not come again in our lifetimes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u80fd\u5728\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u751f\u80b2\u7387\u65bc\u4e0d\u589c\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5c11\u5c11\u7684\u5e7e\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u6cd5\u570b\u3001\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u3001\u745e\u5178\u548c\u7d10\u897f\u862d\u3002\u7e31\u4f7f\u5927\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u5f04\u5f97\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u7e31\u4f7f\u5927\u5bb6\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u7e31\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u3001\u6cd5\u570b\u4eba\u3001\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u4eba\u3001\u745e\u5178\u4eba\u548c\u7d10\u897f\u862d\u4eba\u9858\u610f\u512a\u5148\u8003\u616e\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4eba\u53e3\u7d50\u69cb\u6539\u8b8a\u5f71\u97ff\u898f\u6a21\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u9019\u5e7e\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u529b\u633d\u72c2\u703e\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5404\u65b9\u9762\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u8ca1\u5bcc\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u9019\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u90fd\u662f\u5f88\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u9577\u671f\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5c07\u7121\u6cd5\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7dad\u6301\u3002\u4f60\u548c\u4f60\u7684\u7236\u6bcd(\u6709\u4e9b\u60c5\u5f62\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u7956\u7236\u6bcd)\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u3001\u597d\u7684\u3001\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u5be6\u5728\u904e\u53bb70\u5e74\uff0c\u5f9e\u4eba\u985e\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u9762\u548c\u4eba\u53e3\u7d50\u69cb\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u7279\u4f8b\u30021980\u52302015\u5e74\u7684\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u5225\u7368\u7279\u7684\u3001\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u3001\u5099\u53d7\u795d\u798f\u7684\u6642\u5149\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5df2\u7136\u662f\u7d50\u675f\u4e86\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\u3002\u90a3\u500b\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u69ae\u5149\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u5011\u6709\u751f\u4e4b\u5e74\uff0c\u662f\u518d\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u4f86\u81e8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u2026China&#8217;s population path turned terminal two decades ago. Based on whose statistics you&#8217;re using, the average Chinese citizen aged past the average American citizen sometime between 2017 and 2020. China&#8217;s labor force and overall population peaked in the 2010s. In the best-case scenario, the Chinese population in the year 2070 will be less than half of what it was in 2020. More recent data that&#8217;s leaked out of the Chinese census authority suggests that date may need to be pulled forward to 2050. China&#8217;s collapse has already begun.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2026\u2026\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6210\u9577\u8da8\u52e2\u572820\u5e74\u524d\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u8d70\u5230\u4e86\u76e1\u982d\u3002\u4f9d\u64da\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u9f61\u57282017\u52302020\u5e74\u9593\u8d85\u904e\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u548c\u7e3d\u4eba\u6578\u57282010\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u9054\u5230\u6700\u9ad8\u5cf0\u3002\u4f9d\u7167\u6700\u6a02\u89c0\u72c0\u6cc1\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7e3d\u4eba\u6578\u57282070\u5e74\u6703\u6bd42020\u5e74\u7e3d\u4eba\u6578\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u9084\u8981\u5c11\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4e2d\u570b\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\u62ab\u9732\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u90a3\u500b\u7e3d\u4eba\u6578\u6e1b\u534a\u7684\u6642\u7a0b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u65e9\u81f32050\u5e74\u3002\u4e2d\u570b(\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u7d50\u69cb)\u5df2\u7d93\u958b\u59cb\u5d29\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe first category of food-exporting countries are those whose supply systems for everything from finance to fertilizers to fuels are sufficiently in-house that they can continue producing their current product set with only minor adjustments. France, the United States, and Canada are the only countries on the planet that check all the boxes. Russia is a near miss. Russian farm vehicles are, well, Russian. Saddled with an aging and collapsing population, Russia simply doesn&#8217;t have the labor to maintain ag output with anything less than the sort of mammoth field equipment that Russia is incapable of manufacturing for itself.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7ce7\u98df\u51fa\u53e3\u570b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f9e\u8cc7\u91d1\u3001\u80a5\u6599\u5230\u71c3\u6599\u7b49\u7b49\u7686\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u7d66\u81ea\u8db3\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9762\u5c0d\u5916\u5728\u7684\u8b8a\u52d5\u7a0d\u5fae\u8abf\u6574\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u7e7c\u7e8c\u751f\u7522\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e09\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\uff1a\u6cd5\u570b\u3001\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u3002\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u8ddd\u96e2\u81ea\u7d66\u81ea\u8db3\u9084\u5dee\u4e00\u9ede\u9ede\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u6c92\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u548c\u5927\u578b\u7684\u6a5f\u68b0\u4f86\u589e\u52a0\u984d\u5916\u7684\u7ce7\u98df\u7522\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cShould something\u2014should anything\u2014happen to those imported food flows, civilizational collapse into anarchy complete with a population &#8220;correction&#8221; isn&#8217;t simply a distinct possibility, it is the most likely outcome. After all, a government that cannot feed its population is a government that falls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s the story of the biggest losers in relative terms. In absolute terms the biggest loser by far will be China. China sits at the end of the world&#8217;s longest supply routes for nearly everything it imports, including roughly 80 percent of its oil needs. China&#8217;s navy lacks the range necessary to secure, via trade or conquest, agricultural products- or even the inputs to grow and raise its own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China&#8217;s demographic collapse suggests imminent labor force and capital-supplies collapses. And China&#8217;s existing, Order-era agricultural system is already the most hyper-financed sector in history&#8217;s most hyper-financed economy. There is nothing about this that will work in the world to come. There will be no shortage of famines in the post-Order world. Likely in excess of 1 billion people will starve to death, and another 2 billion will suffer chronic malnutrition. Some two-thirds of China&#8217;s population faces one of those two fates. And remember, China is also history&#8217;s most quickly aging society. The people who will be called upon to manage\u2014or suffer through\u2014mass malnutrition and famine are going to be old.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9032\u53e3\u7ce7\u98df\u7684\u7269\u6d41\u51fa\u73fe\u4efb\u4f55\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u793e\u6703\u5c07\u9677\u5165\u7121\u6cd5\u4fee\u6b63\u633d\u56de\u7684\u7121\u653f\u5e9c\u72c0\u614b\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u767c\u751f\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u3002\u7562\u7adf\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u9935\u98fd\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u662f\u5931\u6557\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u90a3\u662f\u6307\u76f8\u5c0d\u800c\u8a00\u53d7\u640d\u6700\u5927\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u3002\u4ee5\u7d55\u5c0d\u503c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u53d7\u640d\u6700\u5927\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u622a\u81f3\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u6b62\uff0c\u6703\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5730\u7406\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u5728\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5b83\u6240\u6709\u9032\u53e3\u7269\u54c1\u904b\u8f38\u8def\u7dda\u7684\u6700\u9060\u7aef\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u5b8380%\u4ef0\u8cf4\u9032\u53e3\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u900f\u904e\u81ea\u7531\u8cbf\u6613\u6216\u6b66\u529b\u5f81\u670d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u6d77\u8ecd\u7684\u5de1\u822a\u7bc4\u570d\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5920\u5927\u5230\u5728\u6574\u689d\u822a\u7dda\u4fdd\u8b77\u5230\u8fb2\u7522\u54c1\u3002(\u4e2d\u570b\u672c\u8eab)\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u751f\u7522\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u4f86\u7a2e\u690d\u5920\u81ea\u7d66\u81ea\u8db3\u7684\u8fb2\u7522\u54c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u53e3\u7d50\u69cb\u7684\u8001\u5316\u5d29\u89e3\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u548c\u8cc7\u91d1\u7684\u5331\u4e4f\u3002\u800c\u7576\u4e0b\u4e2d\u570b\u6307\u5c0e\u6027\u8fb2\u696d\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u53f2\u4e0a\u52d5\u7528\u6700\u591a\u8cc7\u91d1\u7684\u90e8\u9580\u4e86\u3002\u9019\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5c07\u7121\u4ee5\u70ba\u7e7c\u3002\u5728\u5f8c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c07\u9951\u8352\u8655\u8655\u3002\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u7d04\u670910\u5104\u4eba\u6703\u9913\u6b7b\uff0c\u670920\u5104\u4eba\u6703\u9677\u5165\u9577\u671f\u7684\u71df\u990a\u4e0d\u826f\u3002\u5927\u7d04\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u5c07\u843d\u5165\u524d\u9762\u90a3\u5169\u7a2e\u547d\u904b\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u8a18\u5f97\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u662f\u53f2\u4e0a\u8001\u5316\u6700\u5feb\u7684\u793e\u6703\u3002\u88ab\u8feb\u8981\u9762\u5c0d\u6216\u5fcd\u53d7\u71df\u990a\u4e0d\u826f\u548c\u9951\u8352\u7684\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u5e74\u7d00\u8f03\u9577\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u2026in a post-globalized world. Production of the crops used for fodder- most notably corn&#8211;will dip. Transport that brings corn and soy to the feedlots and meat to the world will falter. Global income will crater, returning animal protein to the realm of luxury for the bulk of the human population. The key word there is &#8220;bulk.&#8221; The New World writ large will still enjoy massive grain and soy surpluses, enabling it to continue following the industrial agricultural model as regards animal husbandry\u2026.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2026\u2026\u5728\u5f8c\u5168\u7403\u5316(post-globalized)\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u7576\u4f5c\u98fc\u6599\u7684\u8fb2\u4f5c\u7269\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7389\u7c73\uff0c\u7522\u91cf\u6703\u907d\u6e1b\u3002\u904b\u9001\u7389\u7c73\u3001\u9ec3\u8c46\u5230\u98fc\u990a\u5834\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c07\u8089\u54c1\u904b\u92b7\u81f3\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u904b\u8f38\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u5c07\u6416\u6416\u6b32\u589c\u3002\u5168\u7403\u4f4e\u8ff7\u7684\u570b\u6c11\u6240\u5f97\uff0c\u5c07\u4f7f\u5f97\u5403\u8089\u5c0d\u5927\u591a\u6578\u7684\u4eba\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5962\u4f88\u3002\u95dc\ud862\udee1\u5b57\u662f\u300c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u7684\u300d\u3002\u5728\u300c\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u300d\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u7a40\u7269\u548c\u8c46\u985e\u4f9b\u755c\u7267\u5834\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4f7f\u7528\u5de5\u696d\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u751f\u7522\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u2026one question popped up time and again: What keeps you up at night?\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Anywho, at its core, this chapter is my answer to the question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The same webwork of sacrosanct interconnections that has brought us everything from quick mortgages to smartphones to on-demand electricity has not only also filled 8 billion bellies, it has done so with the odd out-of-season avocado. That&#8217;s now largely behind us. The web is failing. Just past the horizon looms a world of lower and less reliable agricultural yields, marred by less variety. A world with less energy or fewer manufactured goods is the difference between wealth and security or poverty and conflict. But a world with fewer foodstuffs is one with fewer people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More than war, more than disease, famine is the ultimate country killer.\u201c*<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2026\u2026\u5fc3\u4e2d\u4e0d\u65b7\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff1a\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4ee4\u4eba\u5728\u665a\u4e0a(\u7169\u60f1\u5f97)\u7761\u4e0d\u8457\u89ba\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u554f\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u91dd\u5c0d\u554f\u984c\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u500b\u7ae0\u7bc0\u6211\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f37\u5927\u4e92\u806f\u7684\u7db2\u7d61\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u5e36\u7d66\u6211\u5011\u5feb\u901f\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u3001\u667a\u6167\u578b\u624b\u6a5f\u53ca\u96a8\u6642\u5145\u96fb\u7684\u65b9\u4fbf\uff0c\u5b83\u4e5f\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u9935\u98fd80\u5104\u4eba\u7684\u80c3\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u751a\u81f3\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u975e\u7522\u5b63\u6709\u916a\u68a8\u53ef\u5403\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u73fe\u5728\u72c0\u6cc1\u5df2\u7d93\u5927\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u4e86\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u7db2\u7d61\u7cfb\u7d71\u6b63\u5728\u5d29\u89e3\u3002\u8fb2\u4f5c\u7269\u4e0d\u518d\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u91cf\u4e5f\u4e0d\u518d\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u7a2e\u985e\u4e5f\u66f4\u5c11\u3002\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5728\u5145\u6eff\u885d\u7a81\u5730\u5340\u7684\u7aae\u4eba\uff0c\u76f8\u8f03\u65bc\u751f\u6d3b\u5b89\u5168\u800c\u5bcc\u6709\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u80fd\u7372\u5f97\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u61c9\u5c07\u66f4\u7dca\u4fcf\u3001\u5de5\u696d\u7522\u54c1\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u5c07\u66f4\u5c11\u3002\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u98df\u7269\u5c07\u66f4\u7f3a\u4e4f\uff0c\u80fd\u990a\u6d3b\u7684\u4eba\u6578\u4e5f\u5c07\u66f4\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6bd4\u8d77\u6230\u722d\u6216\u75be\u75c5\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u6467\u6bc0\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u6bba\u624b\uff0c\u6703\u662f\u9951\u8352\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*\uff1aPeter Zeihan, \u201cThe end of the world is just the beginning,\u201d 2022, HarperCollins<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2023\/11\/16 The end of the world is just the beginning Damakey<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cA precious few countries have&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-3"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36842"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36842\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36844,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36842\/revisions\/36844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}