{"id":36682,"date":"2023-09-11T17:37:34","date_gmt":"2023-09-11T09:37:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/?p=36682"},"modified":"2023-09-26T17:39:09","modified_gmt":"2023-09-26T09:39:09","slug":"fossil-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/?p=36682","title":{"rendered":"Fossil Future"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u6148\u60b2\uff1f\u5c0dAlex Epstein \u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u591a\u7528\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u90a350\u5104\u8ca7\u7aae\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6148\u60b2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7bc0\u9304\u4e00\u4e9b\u91cd\u9ede\u8ddf\u5927\u5bb6\u5206\u4eab\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn fact, if we look at the universally acknowledged history of climate and life on this planet, we inevitably come to the conclusion that rising CO\u2082 levels leading to an unlivable planet is literally impossible- because the planet was incredibly livable for far less-adaptable organisms, with much in common with us, when CO\u2082 was at levels that we could not come close to even if we wanted to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are four basic truths about the history of climate that lead me to this conclusion:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. The global climate system is near historic lows in CO\u2082 and temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. We have no near-term mechanism of reaching even one fourth the historical high of CO\u2082<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Life on Earth thrived at far higher CO\u2082 levels and temperatures in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Planetary warming is concentrated in colder parts of the Earth- it is not truly global.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f9e\u5730\u7403\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u662f\u7121\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u300c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u6fc3\u5ea6\u7684\u5347\u9ad8\u6703\u4ee4\u5730\u7403\u7121\u6cd5\u4f4f\u4eba\u300d\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u7684\u3002\u5730\u7403\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u6fc3\u5ea6\uff0c\u66fe\u9ad8\u5230\u5c31\u7b97\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u60f3\u8981\u4e5f\u9054\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u5730\u6b65\uff0c\u4f46\u7576\u6642\u5730\u7403\u53ef\u662f\u751f\u6a5f\u52c3\u52c3\uff0c\u751f\u5b58\u8457\u5f88\u591a\u985e\u4f3c\u6211\u5011\u4f46\u662f\u6bd4\u6211\u5011\u5c0d\u74b0\u5883\u9069\u61c9\u529b\u5dee\u4e0a\u5f88\u591a\u7684\u7269\u7a2e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0a\u9762\u9019\u500b\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56db\u9805\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u7684\u6b74\u53f2\u771f\u76f8\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \u73fe\u5728\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6fc3\u5ea6\u548c\u6c23\u6eab\u7684\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6c23\u5019\u7cfb\u7d71\u5728\u6b74\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u4f4e\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. \u5728\u8fd1\u671f\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6fc3\u5ea6\u518d\u9ad8\u4e5f\u9ad8\u4e0d\u904e\u904e\u53bb\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u9ad8\u8a18\u9304\u7684\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. \u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u5728\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u6fc3\u5ea6\u53ca\u6c23\u6eab\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u7684\u751f\u7269\u9577\u5f97\u53ef\u662f\u5f88\u84ec\u52c3\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. \u5730\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u53ea\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5730\u5340\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u666e\u904d\u73fe\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSince 1980, the percentage of humanity living on less than $2 a day has gone from 42 percent to under 10 percent today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This wondrous development is the result of increasing and expanding productivity, which is driven by the increasing and expanding use of fossil-fueled machine labor and the enormous amounts of mental labor it frees up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is still far more progress to be had. Not only are there the 10 percent of people who still struggle (and die early) on less than $2 a day, but the overwhelming majority of humanity still lives at a level that most readers of this book would consider desperate poverty. For example, five billion people still live on less than $10 a day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expanding fossil fuel use will enable everyone, especially the world’s poorest people, to become more productive and prosperous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, continuing advances in pollution-control technology will make it possible for poorer people to use fossil fuels to lift themselves out of poverty with less and less pollution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of this means more first light bulbs, more first refrigerators, more first rewarding jobs, more first years with a consistently full stomach, more first years drinking consistently clean water, more first years being comfortable no matter what the weather.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f9e1980\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u6240\u5f97\u4f4e\u65bc\u7f8e\u91d12\u5143\u7684\u8ca7\u7aae\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u5f9e\u767e\u5206\u4e4b42\u964d\u5230\u767e\u5206\u4e4b10\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9019\u500b\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u4f86\u81ea\u751f\u7522\u529b\u7684\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u63a8\u52d5\u6a5f\u5668\uff0c\u7bc0\u7701\u7684\u52de\u52c9\u529b\u8b93\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7a7a\u9918\u6642\u9593\u53bb\u601d\u8003\u5275\u65b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5728\u9632\u6cbb\u6c61\u67d3\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u9032\u6b65\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u6539\u5584\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u517c\u9867\u5230\u6c61\u67d3\u7684\u6e1b\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9019\u4e9b\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8b93\u66f4\u591a\u4eba\u64c1\u6709\u4ed6\u5011\u4eba\u751f\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u7d44\u96fb\u71c8\u6ce1\u3001\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u51b0\u7bb1\u3001\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efd\u597d\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u80fd\u5920\u9577\u5e74\u586b\u98fd\u809a\u5b50\u3001\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u80fd\u5920\u559d\u4e0a\u4e7e\u6de8\u7684\u6c34\u3001\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u5929\u5019\u4e4b\u4e0b\u90fd\u611f\u5230\u5b89\u5fc3\u8212\u9069\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSome of the challenges I am most concerned about are antibiotic-resistant bacteria, growing government deficits, and the rise of dictatorial nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One great feature of an empowered world is that it has a general and highly adaptive ability to deal with such challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We saw this with COVID-19 when the empowered world was able to develop multiple vaccines in less than a years in fact, the Moderna vaccine was actually designed in a weekend using modern computing machines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A world increasingly empowered by fossil fuels will have the ability to take on the challenges we can think of and the ones we can’t think of.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u5011\u6700\u64d4\u5fc3\u7684\u6311\u6230\u662f\u6297\u85e5\u6027\u7d30\u83cc\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u9810\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u589e\u9ad8\u53ca\u7368\u88c1\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u8208\u8d77\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u5f97\u4eba\u985e\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u6311\u6230\u6642\uff0c\u66f4\u4ff1\u5099\u8abf\u6574\u9069\u61c9\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9762\u5c0dCovid-19\u7684\u6311\u6230\uff0c\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u4e00\u5e74\u5167\u7814\u767c\u51fa\u591a\u7a2e\u75ab\u82d7\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u83ab\u5fb7\u7d0d\u75ab\u82d7\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u5229\u7528\u4e00\u500b\u9031\u672b\u904b\u7528\u6700\u5148\u9032\u7684\u96fb\u8166\u904b\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u8a2d\u8a08\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u5462\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u500b\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5c07\u4f7f\u6211\u5011\u4ff1\u5099\u6240\u9700\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u63a5\u53d7\u73fe\u5728\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u6216\u672a\u4f86\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u6311\u6230\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*\uff1aAlex Epstein, \u201cFossil Future, Why Global Human Flourishing Required More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas \u2014 Nit Less,\u201d 2022, Penguin Random House LLC<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2023\/9\/11  Fossil Future Damakey<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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