{"id":36491,"date":"2023-07-30T08:28:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-30T00:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/?p=36491"},"modified":"2023-08-05T10:52:05","modified_gmt":"2023-08-05T02:52:05","slug":"to-govern-the-globe-world-orders-catastrophic-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/?p=36491","title":{"rendered":"To Govern the Globe, World Orders & Catastrophic Change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026In a major strategic miscalculation, Washington admitted Beijing to the World Trade Organization(WTO) in 2001, bizarrely confident that compliant China would somehow join the global economy without changing the balance of power. \u2018Across the ideological spectrum, we in the US foreign policy community,\u2019 two former members of the Obama administration later wrote, \u2018shared the underlying belief that US power and hegemony could readily mold China to the United States\u2019 liking\u2026.All sides of the policy debate erred.\u2019 A bit more bluntly, formal national security advisor H.R. McMaster concluded that Washington had empowered \u2018a nation whose leaders were determined not only to displace the United States in Asia, but also to promote a rival economic and governance model globally.\u2019 Over the span of fifteen years, Beijing\u2019s exports to the US grew nearly fivefold to $462 billion, and its foreign currency reserves surged from just $200 billion to an unprecedented $4 trillion by 2014\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u5b98\u54e1\u4e8b\u5f8c\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u8b93\u4e2d\u570b\u57282001\u5e74\u52a0\u5165WTO\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u7b56\u7565\u4e0a\u6240\u72af\u7684\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u5931\u8aa4\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u77ed\u77ed15\u5e74\u4e4b\u5167\uff0c\u5916\u532f\u5b58\u5e95\u5f9e2000\u5104\u7f8e\u91d1\u81a8\u8139\u5230\u4e864\u5146\u7f8e\u91d1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(\u4e2d\u570b\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u5927\u8086\u64f4\u5f35\u8ecd\u5099\uff0c\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u53d6\u5f97\u6e2f\u53e3\u4e26\u958b\u59cb\u5efa\u4e00\u4e9b\u6d77\u8ecd\u57fa\u5730\uff0c\u4e26\u5be6\u65bd\u300c\u4e00\u5e36\u4e00\u8def\u300d\u7684\u5404\u9805\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u5728\u6b50\u4e9e\u5927\u9678\u4e4b\u9593\u5efa\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u7ba1\u7dda\u3001\u9435\u8def\uff0c\u513c\u7136\u6210\u70ba\u65b0\u5800\u8d77\u7684\u5340\u57df\u6027\u5f37\u6b0a\uff0c\u610f\u5716\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e2d\u4e00\u8f03\u9577\u77ed)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026In late 2019, the New York Times reported that \u2018in 18 of the last 18 Pentagon war game involving China in the Taiwan Strait, the US lost,\u2019 Rather than ramp up its defense of those straits, where more US aircraft carriers would simply mean bigger targets, in 2020 Washington encouraged Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., maker of 85 percent the world\u2019s most advanced computer chips, to build a $12 billion factory in Arizona. Those outcomes may explain how Beijing\u2019s growing strength in the South China Sea could become the first step in Washington\u2019s retreat from the Pacific littoral. As China pushes its maritime frontier farther into Pacific, engulfing and threatening Taiwan, Washington may well be faced a difficult choice\u2014to either abandon an old ally, or fight a war it might lose.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u9632\u90e8\u572818\u7a2e\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u5c0d\u6230\u7684\u53f0\u6d77\u6230\u5f79\u5175\u68cb\u63a8\u6f14\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u7f8e\u570b\u90fd\u662f\u8f38\u5bb6\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u70ba\u4e86\u964d\u4f4e\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8981\u6c42\u4ee3\u5de5\u9ad8\u968e\u6676\u7247\u7684\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u82b1120\u5104\u7f8e\u91d1\u8a2d\u7acb\u65b0\u7684\u5de5\u5ee0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEven if China were to become the preeminent world power around 2030, the accelerating of climate change will likely curtailed its hegemony within two to three decades\u2026by 2050, rising seas will inundate several major Chinese coastal cities, particularly the county\u2019s commercial hub at Shanghai. As these problems gain intensity after mid century, Beijing will likely be forced to retreat from its projection of global power to address urgent domestic concerns.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7e31\u4f7f\u4e2d\u570b\u57282030\u5e74\u80fd\u8e8b\u8eab\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5f37\u6b0a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u96a8\u8457\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u4ee5\u81f4\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u52a0\u5287\u7684\u5230\u4f86\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5c07\u6703\u88ab\u8feb\u628a\u8cc7\u6e90\u53ca\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u653e\u56de\u5230\u570b\u5167\uff0c\u89e3\u6c7a\u6cbf\u6d77\u57ce\u5e02\u88ab\u6d77\u6c34\u6df9\u6c92\u800c\u5fc5\u9808\u5927\u91cf\u9077\u5c45\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026increasing temperatures will devastate the North China Plain, a prime agricultural region between Beijing and Shanghai currently inhabited by four hundred million people, potentially making it the most lethal place on the planet\u2026when the combination of heat and humidity reaches a \u2018wet bulb temperature\u2019(WBT) of 31 \u00b0C\uff0cand perhaps five lethal periods of 35\u00b0C WBT(where a combination of heat and high humidity prevents the evaporation of sweat that cools human body). After just six hours under the later condition, a healthy person at rest will die\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u6c23\u5019\u6f6e\u6fd5\u7684\u83ef\u5317\u5730\u5340\u5c45\u6c11\u5a01\u8105\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u300c\u6ebc\u7403\u6eab\u5ea6\u300d(wet bulb temperature, WBT)35 \u00b0C\u4ee5\u4e0a(\u7d04\u757646\u00b0C+\u76f8\u5c0d\u6ebc\u5ea650%\u4ee5\u4e0a)\uff0c\u4eba\u5c07\u7121\u6cd5\u6392\u6c57\uff0c\u7e31\u4f7f\u662f\u5f88\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u689d\u4ef6\u4e0b6\u500b\u5c0f\u6642\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026The Black Death persisted for just four years\u2026The Napoleonic Wars lasted 20 years and World War II six years. Instead of ending in 2050 or even 2100, climate change will\u2026continue and likely escalate for at least two more centuries before stabilizing with the formation of a very new kind of climate\u2026That changed climate will bring such cascading consequences as aridification, drought, fire, flood, rising seas, and weather extremes on a previous inconceivable scale\u2014causing suffering for human societies worldwide and incalculable disruption to existing world order.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u9ed1\u6b7b\u75c5\u3001\u62ff\u7834\u5d19\u6230\u722d\u3001\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230(\u6216\u6700\u8fd1\u7684Covid-19), \u90fd\u5728\u77ed\u66ab\u7684\u5e7e\u5e74\u5167\uff0c\u9802\u591a20\u5e74\uff0c\u5c31\u7d50\u675f\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u90a3\u9ebc\u65e9\u5c31\u96e2\u6211\u5011\u800c\u53bb\u3002\u4e7e\u65f1\u3001\u71e5\u71b1\u3001\u91ce\u706b\u3001\u6d2a\u6c34\u3001\u6d77\u6c34\u6df9\u6c92\u7b49\u7b49\u5929\u707d(\u6216\u4eba\u798d\uff1f)\uff0c\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u5169\u500b\u4e16\u7d00\u5167\uff0c\u5c07\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8b70\u7684\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4eba\u985e\u751f\u547d\u548c\u8ca1\u7522\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ee5\u5b8f\u89c0\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\uff0c\u5c07\u727d\u52d5\u300c\u4eba\u985e\u4e16\u300d\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u8ecd\u4e8b\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u9577\u671f\u767c\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*\uff1aAlfred W. McCoy, To Govern the Globe, World Orders & Catastrophic Change, 2021, Haymarket Books<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2023\/7\/30 To Govern the Globe, World Orders & Catastrophic Change Damakey<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\u2026In a major strategic miscalc…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-3"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36491","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36491"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36491\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36493,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36491\/revisions\/36493"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}