{"id":36451,"date":"2023-07-21T09:12:08","date_gmt":"2023-07-21T01:12:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/?p=36451"},"modified":"2023-07-23T09:31:10","modified_gmt":"2023-07-23T01:31:10","slug":"unsettled-what-climate-science-tells-us-what-it-doesnt-and-why-it-matters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/?p=36451","title":{"rendered":"Unsettled? What climate science tells us, what it doesn\u2019t, and why it matters?\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026\u2026both the research literature and government reports that summarize and assess the state of climate science say clearly that heat waves in the US are now no more common than they were in 1900, and that the warming temperatures in the US have not risen in the past fifty years\u2026\u201d*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6839\u64da\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u6c23\u6eab\u5728\u904e\u53bb50\u5e74\u9593\u4e26\u672a\u660e\u986f\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUnsettled?\u201d\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u4f5c\u8005Steven E. Koonin\uff0c\u5728\u5206\u6790\u5404\u7a2e\u95dc\u65bc\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a\u4e4b\u5f8c\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u5a92\u9ad4\u53ca\u74b0\u4fdd\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u8a87\u5927\u7814\u7a76\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u8f03\u60b2\u89c0\u3001\u7cdf\u7cd5\u72c0\u6cc1\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e26\u6ca1\u6709\u8aaa\u660e\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u689d\u4ef6\uff0c\u5145\u6eff\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u8b70\u984c\uff0c\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5c64\u9762\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u6709\u5b9a\u8ad6\u6709\u5f85\u5546\u69b7(unsettled)\uff0c\u547c\u7c72\u5927\u5bb6\u8981\u76f4\u63a5\u56de\u53bb\u770b\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u5ba2\u89c0\u3001\u51b7\u975c\u3001\u52d9\u5be6\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f86\u770b\u5f85\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u8b70\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\uff0c\u4ed6\u7e3d\u7d50\u4e86\u4e09\u9805\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cKeeping human influences on climate below levels deemed prudent by the UN and many governments would require that global carbon dioxide emissions, which have been rising for decades, vanish sometime in the later part of this century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emissions reductions would have to take place in the face of growing energy demand driven by demographics and development, the dominance of fossil fuel, and the current drawbacks of low-emission technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s barriers, combined with the uncertainty and vague nature of future climate impacts, mean that the most likely societal response will be adapt to a changing climate, and that adaptation will very likely be effective.\u201d*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7bc0\u80fd\u6e1b\u78b3\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u5c0d\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u7684\u4f9d\u8cf4\uff0c\u52a0\u91cd\u7da0\u8272\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u958b\u767c\uff0c\u572821\u4e16\u7d00\u524d\u9054\u5230\u78b3\u7684\u96f6\u6392\u653e\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u96a8\u8457\u6c23\u5019\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u5373\u6642\u6709\u6548\u5730\u4fee\u6b63\u505a\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9664\u4e86\u7bc0\u80fd\u6e1b\u78b3\uff0c\u9084\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \u589e\u52a0\u5730\u7403\u7684\u53cd\u5c04(\u5c4b\u9802\u5f04\u6210\u767d\u8272)  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. \u4e3b\u52d5\u5f9e\u7a7a\u6c23\u4e2d\u62bd\u53d6\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3(\u6bcf\u5678\u9ad8\u9054100\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6210\u672c\u5f88\u9ad8)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. \u7a2e\u6a39(\u6a39\u6728\u6210\u6797\u9700\u8981\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6642\u9593)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026\u2026The impact of human influences on the climate is too uncertain(and very likely too small) compared to the daunting amount of change required to actually achieve the goal of eliminating net global emission by, say, 2075. And for me, the many certain downsides of mitigation outweigh the uncertain benefits: world\u2019s poor need growing amounts of reliable and affordable energy; and wide-spread renewables or fission are currently too expensive, unreliable, or both. I would like to wait until the science becomes more settled\u2014that is, until the climate\u2019s response to human influences is better determined, or, failing that, until a values consensus emerges or zero-emissions technologies become more feasible\u2014before embarking on a program to tax or regulate greenhouse gas emission out of existence or to capture and store massive amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.\u201d*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9019\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u662f\u96a8\u6642\u6c23\u5019\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8981\u96a8\u6642\u8abf\u6574\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8981\u6c42\u4e00\u6b65\u5230\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u7bc0\u80fd\u6e1b\u78b3\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u6548\u679c\u96e3\u6599\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5c0d\u65bc\u958b\u767c\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u6539\u5584\u8f03\u4e0d\u5bcc\u88d5\u7684\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u54c1\u8cea\uff0c\u6703\u662f\u4e00\u5927\u6253\u64ca\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5c0d\u65bc\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u8b70\u984c\u5c1a\u672a\u5f97\u5230\u5171\u8b58\u4e4b\u524d\uff0cSeven E. Koonin\u5efa\u8b70\u5927\u5bb6\u8981\u52d9\u5be6\u4ee5\u5c0d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P.S. \u4e2d\u592e\u793e\u5c0d2023\u5e74\u806f\u5408\u570b\u6700\u65b0\u8cc7\u6599\u7684\u5831\u5c0e\uff0c\u806f\u5408\u570b\u547c\u7c72\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\u57282040\u524d\u9054\u6210\u96f6\u78b3\u6392\u653e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u300c\u5018\u82e5\u6309\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6696\u5316\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5747\u6eab\u5c07\u5728\u672c\u4e16\u7d00\u672b\u4e0a\u5347\u651d\u6c0f3.2\u5ea6\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5be6\u73fe\u7576\u524d\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5347\u9ad8\u81f3\u5c11\u651d\u6c0f2.2\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5168\u7403\u5747\u6eab\u5df2\u8f031850-1900\u5e74\u6c34\u6e96\u9ad8\u51fa\u651d\u6c0f1.1\u5ea6\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u6975\u7aef\u5929\u6c23\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*\uff1aSeven E. Koonin\uff0cUnsettled? What climate science tells us, what it doesn\u2019t, and why it matters\uff0c2021\uff0cBenBella Books, Inc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2023\/7\/21 Unsettled? What climate science tells us, what it doesn\u2019t, and why it matters? Damakey<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\u2026\u2026both the research literatur…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-3"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36451"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36451\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36453,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36451\/revisions\/36453"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}