{"id":2013,"date":"2021-03-23T23:31:52","date_gmt":"2021-03-23T15:31:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/?p=2013"},"modified":"2023-05-26T11:43:11","modified_gmt":"2023-05-26T03:43:11","slug":"%e6%a9%a1%e7%9a%ae%e6%93%a6%e8%a8%88%e7%95%ab","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/?p=2013","title":{"rendered":"\u6a61\u76ae\u64e6\u8a08\u756b"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u4eba\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u884c\u70ba\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u6d3e\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u5404\u7a2e\u7684\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u8b49\u660e\u4eba\u5728\u4e0b\u5224\u65b7\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u5145\u6eff\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u504f\u8aa4\uff0c\u6311\u6230\u4e86\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5c0d\u300c\u4eba\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\u300d\u4e4b\u57fa\u672c\u5047\u8a2d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u884c\u70ba\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u6d3e\u7684\u9f3b\u7956\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u6709\u540d\u7684\u3001\u5927\u5bb6\u7d93\u5e38\u63d0\u8d77\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u5e74\u7d00\u76f8\u5dee\u50c5\u4e94\u6b72\u7684\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u5171\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u767c\u4f48\u4e86\u591a\u7bc7\u5171\u540c\u7f72\u540d\u7684\u9769\u547d\u6027\u8ad6\u6587\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4ed6\u5011\u90fd\u662f\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u7c4d\u7684\u7336\u592a\u4eba\u3002\u5e73\u5e38\u6c92\u4e8b\u5c31\u505a\u7814\u7a76\u6559\u66f8\uff0c\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u4e00\u65e6\u53d7\u5230\u5916\u6575\u7684\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u4eba\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u642d\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u73ed\u98db\u6a5f\u8fd4\u570b\uff0c\u7a7f\u4e0a\u8ecd\u88dd\uff0c\u62ff\u8d77\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u5171\u8d74\u570b\u96e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u80fd\u8a00\u5584\u9053\uff0c\u601d\u8003\u654f\u6377\uff0c\u5e38\u5e38\u6210\u70ba\u805a\u6703\u4e2d\u7684\u7126\u9ede\uff1b\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u5247\u8f03\u5167\u6b5b\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u6700\u6709\u540d\u7684\u662f\u8d85\u5f37\u7684\u8a18\u61b6\u529b\uff0c\u6388\u8ab2\u5f9e\u4e0d\u5e36\u66f8\u6216\u7b46\u8a18\uff0c\u64da\u8aaa\u4ed6\u628a\u4e00\u6574\u672c\u66f8\u90fd\u80cc\u4e86\u4e0b\u4f86\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u7684\u77e5\u540d\u5ea6\uff0c\u5728\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u751f\u524d\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u6bd4\u8f03\u77e5\u9053\u963f\u83ab\u65af\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u7814\u7a76\u5927\u734e\u90fd\u53ea\u9812\u7d66\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u3002\u53ef\u60dc\u7684\u662f\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u65e9\u901d\uff0c\u5f8c\u4f86\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5c31\u55ae\u7368\u9812\u7d66\u4e86\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e<\/span>(<\/span>\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u53ea\u9812\u7d66\u9084\u6d3b\u8457\u7684\u4eba<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u7684\u5149\u74b0\uff0c\u4e16\u4eba\u5c0d\u884c\u70ba\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u6d3e\u9f3b\u7956\u7684\u8a8d\u8b58\uff0c\u6162\u6162\u5730\u5c31\u6bd4\u8f03\u77e5\u9053\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u77e5\u9084\u6709\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u5728\u884c\u70ba\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u4e0a\u7684\u8ca2\u737b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u4e0d\u5206\u8ed2\u8f0a\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u7bc7\u8ad6\u6587\u662f\u300c\u76f8\u4fe1\u5c0f\u6578\u6cd5\u5247\u300d<\/span>(BELIEF IN THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u300c\u76f8\u4fe1\u5c0f\u6578\u6cd5\u5247\u300d\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u5011\u76f8\u4fe1\u5f9e\u6bcd\u9ad4<\/span>P(population)<\/span>\u4e2d\u96a8\u6a5f\u62bd\u6a23\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6a23\u672c<\/span>S(sample)<\/span>\u548c\u6bcd\u9ad4\u7684\u6027\u8cea\u63a5\u8fd1<\/span>(<\/span>\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4f86\u4ee3\u8868<\/span>\/<\/span>\u63a8\u6e2c\u6bcd\u9ad4<\/span>)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u9019\u500b\u6a23\u672c<\/span>S<\/span>\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u662f\u76f8\u5c0d\u6bd4\u8f03\u5c0f\u7684\u6578\u5b57<\/span>N<\/span>\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982<\/span>30<\/span>\u3002\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u8868\u53ef\u4ee5\u67e5\uff0c\u5f9e\u591a\u5927\u7684\u6bcd\u9ad4\uff0c\u5728<\/span>2<\/span>\u500d\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8981\u9054\u5230\u591a\u5927\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6c34\u6e96<\/span>(<\/span>\u8b6c\u5982<\/span>95%<\/span>\uff0c\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf\u843d\u5728\u96e2\u5e73\u5747\u503c<\/span>X<\/span>\u6b63\u8ca0<\/span>2<\/span>\u500d\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u662f<\/span>95%)<\/span>\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6a23\u672c<\/span>S<\/span>\u7684\u5927\u5c0f<\/span>N<\/span>\u5fc5\u9808\u591a\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4eba\u5011\u4e0d\u53ea\u76f8\u4fe1\u9019\u6a23\u505a\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u96a8\u6a5f\u62bd\u6a23\u7d50\u679c\u548c\u6bcd\u9ad4\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e5f\u76f8\u4fe1\u91cd\u8907\u9032\u884c\u7684\u62bd\u6a23\u7d50\u679c\u4e4b\u9593\u4e5f\u662f\u63a5\u8fd1<\/span>(<\/span>\u56b4\u91cd\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u6a23\u672c\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5dee\u7570<\/span>)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u5f15\u7528<\/span>Cohen(1962)<\/span>\u91dd\u5c0d\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\u6240\u505a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8a08\u7b97\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u6a23\u672c\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf\u8207\u5e73\u5747\u6578<\/span>X<\/span>\u7684\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u5c45\u7136\u9ad8\u9054\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u7684<\/span>0.48<\/span>\u500d\u5462\uff01\u610f\u601d\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u767c\u8868\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u5728\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6c34\u6e96\u662f\u4e0d\u8db3\u5920\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u9023\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5b78\u8005\u90fd\u76f2\u76ee\u300c\u76f8\u4fe1\u5c0f\u6578\u6cd5\u5247\u300d\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5f97\u4ee5\u767c\u8868\uff0c\u5b78\u8853\u54c1\u8cea\u582a\u616e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u800c\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u300c\u76f8\u4fe1\u5c0f\u6578\u6cd5\u5247\u300d\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u6240\u7a31\u7684\u300c\u8ced\u5f92\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4\u300d<\/span>(gambler’s fallacy)<\/span>\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u5df2\u7d93\u8f38\u4e86\u5e7e\u5c40\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u8ced\u5c40\u518d\u8d0f\u56de\u4f86\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u76f8\u4fe1\u8ced\u5834\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u500b\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u9ab0\u5b50\uff0c\u8f38\u5c40\u6703\u88ab\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u8d0f\u5c40\u6240\u300c\u66f4\u6b63\u300d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5e7e\u500b\u8ced\u5c40\u7684\u8f38\u8d0f\u7684\u6a23\u672c<\/span>S(<\/span>\u8b6c\u5982<\/span>S1<\/span>\u548c<\/span>S2)<\/span>\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u8ced\u5834\u6574\u9ad4\u516c\u5e73\u6027<\/span>P<\/span>\u7684\u62bd\u6a23\uff0c\u8ced\u5f92\u548c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u6a23\u672c<\/span>S1<\/span>\uff0c<\/span>S2<\/span>\u7b49\u548c\u6bcd\u9ad4<\/span>P<\/span>\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u6a23\u672c<\/span>S1<\/span>\u548c<\/span>S2<\/span>\u8207<\/span>P<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca<\/span>S1<\/span>\u8207<\/span>S2<\/span>\u4e4b\u9593\u6703\u7522\u751f\u7684\u5dee\u7570\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u8f38\u4e86\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u4e0d\u9858\u505c\u640d\uff0c\u6703\u5750\u4e0b\u4f86\u7e7c\u7e8c\u8ced\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u4e00\u5b9a\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ffb\u672c\u3002\u800c\u5df2\u7d93\u8d0f\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\uff0c\u4ee5\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u624b\u6c23\u6b63\u9806\uff0c\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u8d0f\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u8f15\u6613\u7372\u5229\u4e86\u7d50\u800c\u96e2\u958b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u7bc7\u5171\u540c\u7f72\u540d\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u300c\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u4e0b\u7684\u5224\u65b7\uff1a\u7c21\u4fbf\u6c7a\u7b56\u548c\u504f\u8aa4\u300d<\/span>(Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases)<\/span>\uff0c\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u95e1\u8ff0\u4e86\u884c\u52d5\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u7684\u5e7e\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5275\u898b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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“People rely on a limited number of heuristic principles which reduce the complex tasks of as- sessing probabilities and predicting val- ues to simpler judgmental operations. In general, these heuristics are quite useful, but sometimes they lead to severe and systematic errors.”<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5927\u610f\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u4eba\u5728\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e8b\u60c5\u6642\uff0c\u662f\u63a1\u7528\u5e7e\u500b\u7c21\u4fbf\u7684\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u5f0f<\/span>(heuristics)<\/span>\u3002<\/span> <\/span>\u4f46\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u592a\u7c21\u4fbf\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u51fa\u932f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7c21\u4fbf\u7684\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u300c\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u300d<\/span>(Representativeness)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7c21\u4fbf\u7684\u300c\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u300d\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8b1b\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u5011\u5728\u4e0b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6642\uff0c\u662f\u5c07\u770b\u5230\u7684\u548c\u81ea\u5df1\u5fc3\u88cf\u67d0\u500b\u65e2\u5b9a\u7684\u5178\u7bc4\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u8fc5\u901f\u505a\u51fa\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u91dd\u5c0d<\/span> <\/span>\u300c\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u300d\uff0c\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\uff0c\u5f9e<\/span>100<\/span>\u4eba\u4e2d\u96a8\u6a5f\u62bd\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\uff0c\u8981\u5b78\u751f\u6839\u64da\u4e00\u6bb5\u6558\u8ff0\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u5176\u6240\u5f9e\u4e8b\u7684\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u884c\u696d\u3002\u9019\u9762\u9019\u6bb5\u5c31\u662f\u4f9d\u7167\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\u7684\u523b\u677f\u5370\u8c61\u5beb\u7684\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

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“Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful, but with little interest in people, or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail.”<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u505a\u7b54\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u5b78\u751f\uff0c\u5728\u62bd\u53d6\u6a23\u672c\u7684\u6bcd\u9ad4<\/span>100<\/span>\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5df2\u77e5\u6709<\/span>30<\/span>\u4f4d\u662f\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\u3001<\/span>70<\/span>\u4eba\u662f\u5f8b\u5e2b\u3002<\/span>(<\/span>\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u4e8b\u5148\u6a5f\u7387\u3001\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6a5f\u7387<\/span>)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u6697\u793a\u300c\u6709<\/span>30<\/span>\u4f4d\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\u3001<\/span>70<\/span>\u4f4d\u662f\u5f8b\u5e2b\u300d\u6216\u300c\u6709<\/span>30<\/span>\u4f4d\u662f\u5f8b\u5e2b\u3001<\/span>70<\/span>\u4f4d\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\u300d\uff0c\u90fd\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u884c\u696d\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u986f\u7136\u540c\u5b78\u5011\u90fd\u4f9d\u7167\u6587\u5b57\u6558\u8ff0\u548c\u81ea\u5df1\u5fc3\u7406\u7684\u523b\u677f\u5370\u8c61\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e4b\u5f8c\u4f86\u505a\u7b54\uff0c\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u9075\u5faa\u8c9d\u6c0f\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u4f9d\u7167\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b<\/span>\/<\/span>\u5f8b\u5e2b\u61c9\u8a72\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f<\/span>0.3\/0.7 <\/span>\u6216<\/span> 0.7\/0.3 <\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4f86\u731c\u6e2c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u7528\u5b8c\u5168\u770b\u4e0d\u51fa\u884c\u696d\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4f86\u505a\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Dick is a 30 year old man. He is mar- ried with no children. A man of high ability and high motivation, he promises to be quite successful in his field. He is well liked by his colleagues.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u6697\u793a\u5728<\/span>100<\/span>\u4eba\u7684\u6bcd\u9ad4\u4e2d\uff0c\u300c\u6709<\/span>30<\/span>\u4f4d\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\u3001<\/span>70<\/span>\u4f4d\u662f\u5f8b\u5e2b\u300d\u6216\u300c\u6709<\/span>30<\/span>\u4f4d\u662f\u5f8b\u5e2b\u3001<\/span>70<\/span>\u4f4d\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\u5e2b\u300d\uff0c\u90fd\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86<\/span>50% Dick <\/span>\u662f\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u986f\u7136\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u4e8b\u5148\u6a5f\u7387<\/span>(<\/span>\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6a5f\u7387<\/span>)<\/span>\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u505a\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u8981\u5b78\u751f\u7814\u5224\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u57ce\u93ae\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u91ab\u9662\u548c\u5c0f\u91ab\u9662\u7537\u5b30\u63a5\u751f\u8d85\u904e<\/span>50%<\/span>\u7684\u65e5\u6578\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

“A certain town is served by two hospitals. In the larger hospital about 45 babies are born each day, and in the smaller hospital about 15 babies are born each day. As you know, about 50 percent of all babies are boys. However, the exact percentage varies from day to day. Sometimes it may be higher than 50 percent, sometimes lower.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

For a period of 1 year, each hospital recorded the days on which more than 60 percent of the babies born were boys.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Which hospital do you think recorded more such days?<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

=<\/span>\u300b<\/span>The larger hospital<\/span><\/p>\n

=<\/span>\u300b<\/span>The smaller hospital <\/span><\/p>\n

=<\/span>\u300b<\/span>About the same”<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7d50\u679c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u90fd\u9078\u64c7\u4e86\u5927\u91ab\u9662\u548c\u5c0f\u91ab\u9662\u7537\u5b30\u8d85\u904e<\/span>50%<\/span>\u7684\u65e5\u6578\u6bd4\u4f8b\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u3002\u9019\u548c\u6a5f\u7387\u7406\u8ad6\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c0f\u91ab\u9662\u56e0\u70ba\u6a23\u672c\u8f03\u5c0f\u3001\u8b8a\u7570\u8f03\u5927\uff0c\u7537\u5b30\u8d85\u904e<\/span>50%<\/span>\u7684\u65e5\u6578\u6bd4\u4f8b\u61c9\u8a72\u6bd4\u5927\u91ab\u9662\u7684\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u76f8\u7b26\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u7c21\u4fbf\u7684\u300c\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u300d\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c45\u7136\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53d7\u5230\u6a23\u672c\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4eba\u5c0d\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u76f4\u89ba\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u932f\u89ba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8b6c\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u516c\u6b63\u7684\u786c\u5e63\uff0c\u51fa\u73fe\u6b63\u9762<\/span>(H, Head)<\/span>\u548c\u53cd\u9762<\/span>(T, Tail)<\/span>\u7684\u9806\u5e8f\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03<\/span>H-T-H-T-T-H <\/span>\u548c<\/span>H-H-H-T-T-T<\/span>\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u90fd\u6703\u8aaa\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u6b63\u53cd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u9806\u5e8f\u6bd4\u8f03\u96a8\u6a5f\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ee3\u8868\u516c\u6b63\u7684\u786c\u5e63\u3002\u986f\u7136\u4eba\u5011\u90fd\u6703\u671f\u5f85\uff0c\u5c0f\u5c0f\u7684\u6a23\u672c\u5c31\u8981\u8868\u73fe\u5f97\u50cf\u6bcd\u9ad4\u4e00\u6a23\u5462\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9019\u548c\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u300c\u8ced\u5f92\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4\u300d<\/span>(Gamber’s fallacy)<\/span>\u548c\u300c\u76f8\u4fe1\u5c0f\u6578\u539f\u5247\u300d<\/span>(belief in small numbers)<\/span>\uff0c\u90fd\u986f\u793a\u4eba\u5011\u5728\u505a\u6c7a\u7b56\u6642\uff0c\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u904b\u7528\u7c21\u4fbf\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u800c\u5f80\u5f80\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u8b2c\u8aa4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u4e5f\u784f\u7a76\u4e86\u4eba\u5728\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u4e0a\u6240\u8868\u73fe\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u672a\u4f86\u500b\u80a1\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6975\u70ba\u4e3b\u89c0\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f9d\u7167\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u672a\u4f86\u662f\u7121\u6cd5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u500b\u80a1\u672a\u4f86\u7372\u5229\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u9802\u591a\u662f\u7528\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u672a\u4f86\u7372\u5229\u7684\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u5ea6\u6108\u9ad8\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u7372\u5229\u5c31\u6703\u63a5\u8fd1\u5be6\u969b\u9054\u6210\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u662f\u4e3b\u89c0\u5730\u8a55\u4f30\u500b\u80a1\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u7372\u5229\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728\u4e4e\u5176\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u5ea6<\/span>(Insensitivity to predictability)<\/span>\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5c0d\u64da\u4ee5\u8a55\u4f30\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u8cc7\u6599\u53ef\u9760\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u8b1b\u7a76\u3002<\/span>(<\/span>\u6240\u4ee5\u554a\uff01\u500b\u80a1\u80a1\u50f9\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4e\uff0c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u6210\u9577\u548c\u7372\u5229\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u662f\u5426\u5920\u7f8e\u9e97\u5922\u5e7b\uff0c\u6545\u4e8b\u672c\u8eab\u53ef\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u95dc\u4fc2\uff01<\/span>)<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u65bc\u64da\u4ee5\u5224\u65b7\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u6703\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u9078\u64c7\u81ea\u5df1\u6bd4\u8f03\u76f8\u4fe1\u7684\u8cc7\u6599<\/span>(illusion of validity)<\/span>\u3002\u8b6c\u5982\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u5728\u9078\u64c7\u7814\u7a76\u8a2a\u8ac7\u5c0d\u8c61\u6642\uff0c\u6703\u50be\u5411\u627e\u6709\u5229\u9054\u6210\u81ea\u5df1\u9810\u8a2d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u76ee\u6a19\u8005\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5b78\u751f\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u5b78\u671f\u8868\u73fe\u7684\u6210\u7e3e\u90fd\u662f<\/span>B<\/span>\u7684\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u6703\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6bd4\u6df7\u96dc<\/span>A<\/span>\u548c<\/span>C<\/span>\u6210\u7e3e\u7684\uff0c\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u5b78\u671f\u7684\u6210\u7e3e\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6210\u7e3e\u90fd\u662f<\/span>B<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5f88\u591a\u8cc7\u8a0a\u662f\u91cd\u8907\u7121\u7528\u7684\uff0c\u6709<\/span>A<\/span>\u6709<\/span>C<\/span>\u8005\uff0c\u5247\u4ee3\u8868\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u6709\u7528\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u53cd\u800c\u66f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f14\u52a9\u505a\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u624d\u5c0d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u8ff4\u6b78\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6240\u9078\u64c7\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u6a23\u672c\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u7e3d\u662f\u6703\u5f80\u6bcd\u9ad4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u8ff4\u6b78\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u4e0d\u61c2\u5f97\u9019\u500b\u9053\u7406<\/span>(Misconceptions of regression)<\/span>\uff0c\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u5247\u6703\u8aa4\u4ee5\u70ba\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8b6c\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u8a13\u7df4\u98db\u884c\u54e1\u5982\u4f55\u8457\u9678\u6642\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u8868\u73fe\u5f97\u597d\u5c31\u4e88\u4ee5\u53e3\u982d\u734e\u52f5\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u4e0b\u4e00\u56de\u8868\u73fe\u53cd\u800c\u8f03\u5dee\u3002\u800c\u5728\u8868\u73fe\u5dee\u6642\u52a0\u4ee5\u8cac\u5099\uff0c\u5247\u767c\u73fe\u4e0b\u4e00\u56de\u5408\u8868\u73fe\u5f80\u5f80\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u6559\u5b98\u56e0\u6b64\u5f37\u70c8\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u8cac\u5099\u662f\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u54e1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5728\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4e4b\u9593\u64fa\u76ea\u800c\u5df2\uff0c\u4e0d\u7528\u8cac\u5099\uff0c\u99d5\u99db\u54e1\u7684\u6280\u8853\u548c\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u9010\u6b65\u900f\u904e\u8a13\u7df4\u548c\u5b78\u7fd2\uff0c\u800c\u6162\u6162\u8b8a\u5f97\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u597d<\/span>(<\/span>\u5f80\u6bcd\u9ad4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u8ff4\u6b78<\/span>)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7c21\u4fbf\u7684\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u4e8c\uff1a\u300c\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u300d<\/span>(Availability)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4eba\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u6191\u81ea\u8eab\u6240\u7d93\u9a57\u6240\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u5370\u8c61\u4f86\u601d\u8003\u3002\u8b6c\u5982\uff0c\u7528\u8eab\u908a\u7684\u4eba\u7f79\u60a3\u5fc3\u81df\u75c5\u7684\u591a\u5be1\uff0c\u4f86\u8a8d\u5b9a\u9019\u7a2e\u75be\u75c5\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u300d\u7c21\u4fbf\u7684\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u300c\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u300d\u7c21\u4fbf\u7684\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6703\u56e0\u7232\u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u5426\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\u50cf\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u8aa4\u5c0e<\/span>(Biases due to the retrievabitity of instances. )<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8b6c\u5982\uff0c\u89aa\u773c\u770b\u898b\u706b\u71d2\u623f\u5b50\u3001\u8eca\u5b50\u7ffb\u8986\uff0c\u9060\u6bd4\u9593\u63a5\u5728\u5a92\u9ad4\u4e0a\u770b\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u9084\u8981\u5370\u8c61\u6df1\u523b\u3002\u80fd\u8fc5\u901f\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u3001\u6700\u8fd1\u767c\u751f\u7684\u3001\u5167\u5fc3\u611f\u89ba\u6bd4\u8f03\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6703\u6df1\u6df1\u5f71\u97ff\u4e86\u4eba\u7684\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u90fd\u8ddf\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u767c\u751f\u983b\u7387\u7b49\u5ba2\u89c0\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e0d\u898b\u5f97\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u95dc\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6703\u9020\u6210\u504f\u8aa4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u300c\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u300d\u7c21\u4fbf\u7684\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u8166\u888b\u4e2d\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u8cc7\u6599\u9593\u8490\u5c0b\u6548\u7387\u800c\u9020\u6210\u504f\u8aa4<\/span>(Biases due to the eflectiveness of a search set.) <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8b6c\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u6703\u89ba\u5f97\u4ee5<\/span>R<\/span>\u3001<\/span>K<\/span>\u7b49\u5b50\u97f3\u70ba\u958b\u982d\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u5b57\uff0c\u6703\u6bd4\u5728\u5b57\ud849\udc65\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u4f4d\u7f6e\u6709<\/span>r<\/span>\u548c<\/span>k<\/span>\u7684\u591a\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u89ba\u5f97\u62bd\u8c61\u7684\u5b57\u773c\uff0c\u5982<\/span>love <\/span>\u7b49\uff0c\u6bd4\u6709\u5be6\u9ad4\u7269\u5f62\u7684\u5b57\u773c\uff0c\u5982<\/span>door <\/span>\u7b49\uff0c\u9084\u66f4\u591a\u3002\u9019\u90fd\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4eba\u7684\u601d\u8003\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u7121\u6cd5\u900f\u904e\u76f4\u89ba\u53cd\u61c9\u904e\u4f86\uff0c\u90a3\u5f97\u9760\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u6703\u7522\u751f\u60f3\u50cf\u7684\u504f\u8aa4<\/span>(Biases of imaginability)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8b6c\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8981\u5f9e<\/span>10<\/span>\u500b\u4eba\u4e2d\u9078<\/span>5<\/span>\u500b\u4eba\u7d44\u6210\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff0c\u6709\u5e7e\u7a2e\u505a\u6cd5\uff1f\u9019\u662f\u6392\u5217\u7d44\u5408\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c<\/span>C10<\/span>\u53d6<\/span>5<\/span>\uff0c\u548c\u76f4\u89ba\u7684\u6578\u76ee\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u5225\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u8981\u9032\u884c\u4e00\u9805\u91ce\u5916\u7684\u5192\u96aa\u63a2\u52d8\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e8b\u5148\u60f3\u50cf\u5230\u5404\u7a2e\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5371\u96aa\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u5371\u96aa\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u767c\u751f\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u548c\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u6709\u95dc\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u898b\u5f97\u662f\u771f\u5be6\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u3002\u6709\u6642\u5019\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u80fd\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u6108\u5c11\uff0c\u624d\u66f4\u80fd\u52c7\u6562\u9032\u884c\u5462\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u540c\u6642\u767c\u751f\u7684\u5169\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u7e31\u4f7f\u6c92\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u8166\u888b\u4e5f\u6703\u628a\u5b83\u5011\u7dca\u7dca\u9023\u7d50\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u504f\u8aa4<\/span>(Illusionary correlation)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7c21\u4fbf\u7684\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u4e09\uff1a\u300c\u5b9a\u9328\u8207\u8abf\u6574\u300d<\/span>(Adjustment from Anchoring)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u8a2d\u8a08\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u8b93\u53d7\u6e2c\u8005\u8f49\u52d5\u8f2a\u76e4\u5148\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e00\u500b\u4ecb\u65bc<\/span>1<\/span>\u548c<\/span>100<\/span>\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u8acb\u53d7\u6e2c\u8005\u731c\u6e2c\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u6578\u662f\u6bd4\u8f2a\u76e4\u4e0a\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u5927\u9084\u662f\u5c0f\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u8aaa\u51fa\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u6578\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5be6\u9a57\u7d50\u679c\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u8f2a\u76e4\u8f49\u5230\u6bd4\u8f03\u5927\u6578\u5b57\u8005\uff0c\u6240\u731c\u6e2c\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u6578\u4e5f\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u6bd4\u8f03\u591a\uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5b9a\u9328\u300d\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u5b9a\u9328\u300d\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u8981\u5b78\u751f\u7528\u76f4\u89ba\u731c\u6e2c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5169\u5f0f\u7684\u4e58\u7a4d\u8a08\u7b97\u70ba\u4f55\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f0f<\/span>A<\/span>\uff1a<\/span>9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1=?<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f0f<\/span>B<\/span>\uff1a<\/span>1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8x9=?<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5f0f<\/span>A<\/span>\u6240\u731c\u51fa\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u9060\u5927\u65bc\u5f0f<\/span>B<\/span>\uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5b9a\u9328\u300d\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u5f0f<\/span>A<\/span>\u958b\u982d\u8f03\u5f0f<\/span>B<\/span>\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u8b93\u53d7\u6e2c\u8005\u7684\u5fc3\u88cf\u6697\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6bd4\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u731c\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u5c31\u300c\u5b9a\u9328\u300d\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u6bd4\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u7372\u51c6\u9032\u5165\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b78\u9662\uff0c\u4e26\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5728<\/span>1984<\/span>\u5e74\u7372\u5f97\u9ea5\u514b\u963f\u745f\u5929\u624d\u734e\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u7684\u7372\u734e\uff0c\u800c\u5171\u540c\u4e00\u8d77\u9054\u6210\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u7684\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u537b\u500d\u53d7\u51b7\u843d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u76f8\u95dc\u8b9a\u7f8e\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u90fd\u8b1b\u5f97\u597d\u50cf\u662f\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u529f\u52de\u4f3c\u7684\uff0c\u5169\u4f4d\u5408\u4f5c\u9577\u9054\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\u7684\u8001\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u5c31\u6b64\u6f38\u884c\u6f38\u9060\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

1996<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>6<\/span>\u6708<\/span>2<\/span>\u65e5\uff0c\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u56e0\u76ae\u819a\u764c\u800c\u53bb\u4e16\uff0c\u4eab\u5e74\u624d<\/span>59<\/span>\u6b72\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u5728\u5f97\u77e5\u7f79\u764c\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u66fe\u544a\u8a34\u4ed6\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u300e<\/span>……<\/span>\u4eba\u751f\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u5f88\u8584\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u5c31\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u597d\u66f8\uff0c\u7167\u6a23\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u975e\u5e38\u597d\u770b\u7684\u66f8\u3002<\/span>……<\/span>\u300f<\/span>*<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u963f\u83ab\u65af<\/span>59<\/span>\u6b72\u5c31\u53bb\u901d\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4ed6\u8b19\u7a31\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u5f88\u8584\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u4f46\u4ee5\u4ed6\u5728\u884c\u70ba\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u4e0a\uff0c\u8207\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u5171\u540c\u958b\u5275\u7684\u5b78\u554f\u65b0\u5c40\uff0c\u5247\u7d76\u5c0d\u662f\u91cd\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e2d\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

2002<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u7372\u9812\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u7684\u6b8a\u69ae\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u9084\u5728\u4e16\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u5c07\u4ed6\u5217\u5165\u70ba\u5171\u540c\u53d7\u734e\u4eba\u7684\u3002\u907a\u61be\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u7684\u898f\u5b9a\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u9812\u734e\u7d66\u9084\u6d3b\u8457\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8ad6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u5728\u884c\u70ba\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u4e0a\u7684\u8ca2\u737b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u300c\u4eba\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\u300d\u9019\u500b\u5047\u8a2d\u4e00\u91dd\u898b\u8840\u7684\u6279\u8a55\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u8a3b\u5b9a\u662f\u540d\u7559\u9752\u53f2\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

*<\/span>\uff1a\u300a\u6a61\u76ae\u64e6\u8a08\u756b\u300b\uff0c\u9ea5\u514b·\u8def\u6613\u58eb<\/span> <\/span>\u8457\uff0c\u5433\u51f1\u7433<\/span> <\/span>\u8b6f<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

2021\/3\/23 <\/span>\u6a61\u76ae\u64e6\u8a08\u756b<\/span> Damakey<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u4eba\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\u3002 \u884c\u70ba\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u6d3e\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u5404\u7a2e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2013","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-3"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2013","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2013"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2013\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20950,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2013\/revisions\/20950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2013"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2013"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/damakey.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2013"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}