![](\"\/\/photo.xuite.net\/_pic\/damakey_vincent.9\/20567005\/1245954840_l.jpg\/redir\")
<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u300e\u95dc\u65bc\u75ab\u60c5\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u6700\u795e\u5947\u7955\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u662f\uff1a\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7206\u767c\u7684\u983b\u7387\u9019\u9ebc\u4f4e\uff1f\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u3001\u817a\u9f20\u75ab<\/span>(<\/span>\u9ed1\u6b7b\u75c5<\/span>)<\/span>\u3001<\/span>SARS<\/span>\u3001<\/span>MERS<\/span>\u3001\u4f0a\u6ce2\u62c9\u75c5\u6bd2\u7b49\u4eba\u755c\u5171\u901a\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e\u52d5\u7269\u79fb\u5230\u4eba\u985e\u8eab\u4e0a\u3002<\/span>……<\/span>\u5c0e\u81f4\u611b\u6ecb\u75c5\u7684\u4eba\u985e\u514d\u75ab\u7f3a\u9677\u75c5\u6bd2<\/span>(HIV)<\/span>\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u6703\u8de8\u8d8a\u7269\u7a2e\u50b3\u64ad\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u8d64\u9053\u975e\u6d32\u6709\u7375\u4eba\u6bba\u6b7b\u4e86\u4e00\u96bb\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u9ed1\u7329\u7329\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u8eab\u4e0a\u7684\u50b7\u53e3\u63a5\u89f8\u5230\u9ed1\u7329\u7329\u7684\u8840\u6db2\u6240\u81f4\u3002<\/span>……<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n (<\/span>\u4e2d\u7565<\/span>)<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u5728\u4e9e\u6d32\uff0c\u8759\u8760\u3001\u9e9d\u9999\u8c93\u548c\u7a7f\u5c71\u7532\u90fd\u66fe\u7d93\u5728\u7576\u5730\u5f15\u8d77\u985e\u4f3c\u6d41\u611f\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u611f\u67d3\u3002\u9019\u985e\u60c5\u5f62\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u3002\u90a3\u9ebc\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5730\u65b9\u548c\u5168\u7403\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u6c92\u6709\u66f4\u5e38\u898b\u7206\u767c\u5462\uff1f<\/span>…..<\/span>\u300f<\/span>*<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u5217\u5f37\u5728\u6b96\u6c11\u7f8e\u6d32\u6642\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u512a\u52e2\u7684\u69cd\u7832\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u771f\u6b63\u6f88\u5e95\u6253\u6557\u7f8e\u6d32\u539f\u4f4f\u6c11\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u6b96\u6c11\u8005\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u964c\u751f\u75c5\u83cc\u3002\u4e9e\u99ac\u905c\u6cb3\u53e2\u6797\u7684\u90e8\u843d\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6709\u8def\u5f9e\u5916\u754c\u62b5\u9054\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u6574\u500b\u90e8\u843d\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u611f\u67d3\u4e86\u5916\u4f86\u7684\u75c5\u83cc\u800c\u6b7b\u5f97\u7cbe\u5149\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u665a\u8fd1\u7684\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\uff0c\u5247\u662f\u5faa\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u800c\u4f86\uff0c\u7531\u53e2\u6797\u800c\u5230\u4e86\u57ce\u5e02\u3002\u4eba\u755c\u5171\u901a\u7684\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4eba\u985e\u55dc\u98df\u8089\u985e\u800c\u63a1\u53d6\u4eba\u755c\u5bc6\u5207\u63a5\u89f8\u7684\u96c6\u7d04\u5f0f\u990a\u6b96\uff0c\u990a\u6b96\u696d\u8005\u53d7\u5230\u611f\u67d3\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u5e36\u5230\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u5dff\u5834\uff1b\u751a\u6216\u6709\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u5df2\u7d93\u4f4f\u9032\u4e86\u57ce\u5e02\uff0c\u4f46\u9084\u662f\u559c\u6b61\u76f4\u63a5\u7375\u98df\u73cd\u5947\u7684\u52d5\u7269\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5c31\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4eba\u755c\u5171\u901a\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u50b3\u64ad\u9014\u5f91\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u5176\u6b21\u63a8\u6ce2\u52a9\u703e\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u6770\u5f17\u91cc·\u97cb\u65af\u7279\u5957\u7528\u751f\u7269\u9ad4\u8eab\u9ad4\u7db2\u7d61\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u7684\u597d\u8655\u3002\u4ed6\u767c\u73fe\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u5de5\u8cc7\u3001\u5c08\u696d\u4eba\u624d\u6578\u3001\u5c08\u5229\u6578\u3001\u9910\u5ef3\u6578\u7684\u5c0d\u6578\u503c\u548c\u8a72\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5c0d\u6578\u503c\uff0c\u5448\u73fe<\/span>1.15<\/span>\u7684\u51aa\u6b21\u7e2e\u653e\u3002\u4f46\u5f88\u4e0d\u5e78\u5730\uff0c\u72af\u7f6a\u6848\u4ef6\u7684\u5c0d\u6578\u503c\u4e5f\u8ddf\u57ce\u5e02\u4eba\u53e3\u5c0d\u6578\u503c\uff0c\u5448\u73fe<\/span>1.21<\/span>\u7684\u51aa\u6b21\u7e2e\u653e\u3002**<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Log(<\/span>\u5de5\u8cc7\u3001\u5c08\u696d\u4eba\u624d\u6578\u3001\u5c08\u5229\u6578<\/span>)=1.15*log(<\/span>\u57ce\u5e02\u4eba\u53e3\u6578<\/span>)<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u610f\u601d\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u57ce\u5e02\u6210\u9577\u4e86<\/span>10<\/span>\u500d\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u57ce\u5e02\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u597d\u8655\u5c31\u4e0d\u53ea<\/span>10<\/span>\u500d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684<\/span>14<\/span>\u500d<\/span>(~10^(1.15*log(10))<\/span>\uff01\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4eba\u985e\u5728\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u4e0d\u65b7\u6e67\u5165\u57ce\u5e02\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u4eba\u4f4f\u5728\u57ce\u5e02\u800c\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u4e86\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u6709\u90a3\u9ebc\u9a5a\u4eba\u7684\u7fa4\u805a\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u6839\u64da\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8f03\u74b0\u4fdd\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u4eba\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\u8017\u640d\uff0c\u90fd\u6bd4\u6563\u5c45\u5728\u9109\u9593\u9084\u8981\u5c11\uff0c\u6c61\u67d3\u7269\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8f03\u80fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u505a\u8f03\u59a5\u5584\u7684\u8655\u7406\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u53ef\u662f\u4e00\u65e6\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u4e86\uff0c\u4eba\u8ddf\u4eba\u4eab\u53d7\u5230\u5bb9\u6613\u4e92\u52d5\u7684\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u529b\u597d\u8655\uff0c\u4e5f\u70ba\u627e\u5230\u9014\u5f91\u9032\u5165\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\uff0c\u4f48\u7f6e\u4e86\u7e41\u6b96\u7684\u6eab\u5e8a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n COVID-19 <\/span>\u6703\u8b8a\u5f97\u90a3\u9ebc\u5147\u731b\u96e3\u7e8f\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5b83\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u7fa4\u805a\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u8fc5\u901f\u5927\u91cf\u50b3\u67d3\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u66f4\u53b2\u5bb3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u4eba\u8207\u4eba\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u4ea4\u53c9\u611f\u67d3\uff0c\u75c5\u6bd2\u6563\u5f48\u6253\u9ce5\u5f0f\u5730\u4e92\u76f8\u4ea4\u63db\u7a81\u8b8a\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u7d44\u51fa\u65e2\u81f4\u547d\u50b3\u67d3\u529b\u53c8\u5f37\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u682a\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u672c\u4f86\u9ed1\u7329\u7329\u3001\u8759\u8760\u3001\u9e9d\u9999\u8c93\u3001\u7a7f\u5c71\u7532\u7b49\u7b49\u751f\u7269\uff0c\u662f\u5404\u81ea\u6d3b\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u500b\u751f\u7269\u68f2\u4f4d\u7684\uff0c\u548c\u4eba\u985e\u900f\u904e\u53e2\u6797\u9593\u9694\u800c\u4e95\u6c34\u4e0d\u72af\u6cb3\u6c34\u7684\u3002<\/span>COVID-19<\/span>\u7684\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\uff0c\u8de8\u8d8a\u7269\u7a2e\u548c\u68f2\u4f4d\u800c\u4f86\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u8aaa\u662f\u4eba\u985e\u5c0d\u5730\u7403\u6bcd\u89aa\u81ea\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\u7121\u76e1\u69a8\u53d6\uff0c\u7834\u58de\u4e86\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u9632\u706b\u7246\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u5f15\u706b\u4e0a\u8eab\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u300c\u5929\u5730\u4e0d\u4ec1\uff0c\u4ee5\u842c\u7269\u70ba\u82bb\u72d7\uff1b\u8056\u4eba\u4e0d\u4ec1\uff0c\u4ee5\u767e\u59d3\u70ba\u82bb\u72d7\u300d<\/span>(<\/span>\u300a\u9053\u5fb7\u7d93\u300b\u7b2c\u4e94\u7ae0<\/span>)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u5929\u5730<\/span>(<\/span>\u5927\u81ea\u7136<\/span>)<\/span>\u4e0d\u6703\u7368\u539a\u65bc\u4eba\u985e\uff0c<\/span>COVID-19<\/span>\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u755c\u5171\u901a\u7684\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u5728\u4eba\u985e\u4e00\u679d\u7368\u79c0\u7684\u58d3\u8feb\u4e0b\u7684\u53cd\u64b2\uff0c\u8981\u628a\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u5e36\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5e73\u8861\u9ede\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u8981\u5e36\u5f97\u591a\u9060\uff0c\u770b\u75c5\u6bd2\u5728\u8ca7\u5bcc\u4e0d\u5747\u7684\u5404\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u6563\u64ad\u53ca\u8b8a\u7570\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u6709\u628a\u63e1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u57ce\u5e02\u6216\u8a31\u662f\u4eba\u985e\u751f\u5b58\u6700\u9069\u7576\u7684\u68f2\u4f4d\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u6e1b\u5c11\u5c0d\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u64fe\u52d5\uff0c\u6539\u8b8a\u96c6\u7d04\u5f0f\u7684\u990a\u6b96\u4e26\u5c11\u5403\u4e00\u9ede\u8089\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u5011\u5c0d<\/span>COVID-19<\/span>\u9019\u500b\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u7d05\u8272\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u53cd\u601d\u800c\u63a1\u53d6\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u4f9d\u7167\u7def\u5ea6\u3001\u5730\u5f62<\/span>(<\/span>\u9ad8\u5c71\u3001\u53e2\u6797\u3001\u6eaa\u8c37\u3001\u5e73\u539f\u3001\u6cb3\u6cca\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b<\/span>)<\/span>\u3001\u6d77\u62d4\u3001\u5b63\u98a8\u3001\u65e5\u7167\u3001\u7a7a\u6c23\u3001\u98df\u7269\u93c8\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u6bcf\u7a2e\u751f\u7269\u90fd\u6709\u6700\u9069\u7576\u7684\u68f2\u4f4d\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u4f9d\u72c0\u6cc1\u6539\u8b8a\u800c\u8207\u6642\u4ff1\u9032\uff0c\u9054\u6210\u67d0\u7a2e\u52d5\u614b\u5747\u8861\u3002\u4eba\u985e\u5df2\u7d93\u5e7e\u4e4e\u7a69\u5c45\u98df\u7269\u93c8\u4e4b\u9996\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u5927\u6982\u53ea\u6709\u50cf<\/span>COVID-19 <\/span>\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u5c0f\u4e0d\u9ede\uff0c\u624d\u53ef\u5371\u53ca\u5b83\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u4e86\u3002\u800c\u9019\u4e0d\u5c31\u662f\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u5728\u88ab\u81ea\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u985e\u5b8c\u5168\u6bc1\u6ec5\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6240\u6d3e\u51fa\u4f86\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce2\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u4fe1\u4f7f\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u8981\u4ed4\u7d30\u50be\u807d\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u51b7\u6230\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7368\u5f37\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u5014\u8d77\u4e86\uff0c\u5728\u5f80\u96d9\u6975\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5169\u5f37\u4e92\u76f8\u50be\u8ecb\u3002\u4eba\u985e\u986f\u7136\u9084\u6c92\u6709\u610f\u8b58\u5230\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u6c92\u6709\u592a\u591a\u6642\u9593\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u770b\u5230\u6c11\u7528\u592a\u7a7a\u5668\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u529f\u767c\u5c04\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6b96\u6c11\u5916\u592a\u7a7a\u5df2\u7136\u553e\u624b\u53ef\u5f97\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u7981\u555e\u7136\u5931\u7b11\u3002\u8a66\u60f3\uff0c\u8981\u627e\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u50cf\u5730\u7403\u4e00\u6a23\u90a3\u9ebc\u5584\u826f\u53ef\u6b3a\u7684\u661f\u7403\u4f86\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7834\u58de\uff0c\u8ac7\u4f55\u5bb9\u6613\u554a\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u5f8c<\/span>(<\/span>\u6709\u5c08\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\u75ab\u5029\u53ea\u6703\u5e38\u614b\u5316\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u904e\u53bb<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u56de\u982d\u91cd\u65b0\u597d\u597d\u611b\u5730\u7403\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6c92\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u5730\u7403\u662f\u6211\u5011\u767e\u5e74\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5316\u70ba\u5143\u7d20\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u9084\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n *<\/span>\uff1a\u300a\u5f8c\u75ab\u60c5\u6548\u61c9\u300b\uff0c\u6cd5\u7406\u5fb7·\u672d\u5361\u745e\u4e9e<\/span> <\/span>\u8457\uff0c\u76e7\u975c\u3001\u5ed6\u5d07\u4f51\u3001\u5ed6\u73ee\u674f\u3001\u5289\u7dad\u4eba<\/span> <\/span>\u8b6f<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n *<\/span>\uff1a\u300a\u898f\u6a21<\/span> Scale <\/span>\u8907\u96dc\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7c21\u55ae\u6cd5\u5247\u300b\uff0c\u6770\u5f17\u91cc·\u97cb\u65af\u7279<\/span>(Geoffrey West) <\/span>\u8457\uff0c\u5f35\u57f9<\/span> <\/span>\u8b6f<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n 2021\/9\/13 <\/span>\u5f8c\u75ab\u60c5\u6548\u61c9<\/span> Damakey<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 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